经济经纬
經濟經緯
경제경위
Economic Survey
2008年
4期
79~82
,共null页
民营上市公司 政治关系 持续经营不确定 银行贷款政策
民營上市公司 政治關繫 持續經營不確定 銀行貸款政策
민영상시공사 정치관계 지속경영불학정 은행대관정책
private listed company; political connection; uncertainty in going concern ; hanks＇loan policy
笔者以2002年～2005年获得非标审计意见上市公司为样本，以上市公司各年度银行贷款占资产总额比例以及贷款的自然对数作为银行贷款决策的替代变量，考察持续经营存在重大不确定对银行贷款决策的影响。多元回归分析发现，民营上市公司在持续经营不确定情况下，银行贷款决策更加严格，而国有上市公司没有因此受到明显影响，但持续经营不确定的国有上市公司债务违约现象比该类民营上市公司更严重。这说明政治关系、政府干预影响了银行向国有上市公司的贷款决策。
筆者以2002年～2005年穫得非標審計意見上市公司為樣本，以上市公司各年度銀行貸款佔資產總額比例以及貸款的自然對數作為銀行貸款決策的替代變量，攷察持續經營存在重大不確定對銀行貸款決策的影響。多元迴歸分析髮現，民營上市公司在持續經營不確定情況下，銀行貸款決策更加嚴格，而國有上市公司沒有因此受到明顯影響，但持續經營不確定的國有上市公司債務違約現象比該類民營上市公司更嚴重。這說明政治關繫、政府榦預影響瞭銀行嚮國有上市公司的貸款決策。
필자이2002년～2005년획득비표심계의견상시공사위양본，이상시공사각년도은행대관점자산총액비례이급대관적자연대수작위은행대관결책적체대변량，고찰지속경영존재중대불학정대은행대관결책적영향。다원회귀분석발현，민영상시공사재지속경영불학정정황하，은행대관결책경가엄격，이국유상시공사몰유인차수도명현영향，단지속경영불학정적국유상시공사채무위약현상비해류민영상시공사경엄중。저설명정치관계、정부간예영향료은행향국유상시공사적대관결책。
The author adopts the Chinese listed companies which got nonstandard audit opinions during the years 2002 - 2005 as the sample, and the ratio of annual loans to total assets at the end of each fiscal year and the natural logarithm of annual loans as the substitute variant of the decision making of bank loans, and reviews the influence of uncertainty in going concern on the decision making of the bank loans. Multi - regression analysis finds that when the company is in uncertain going concern, the decision making of bank loans is more rigid, but state - owned listed companies are not influenced obviously, but the state - owned listed companies breaking the loan contracts is more serious than the private companies, which shows that political connections and the government interference affect the decision - making of the bank loans to state - owned listed companies.
