CAJ | 학술논문

20世纪80年代以来，发达国家的经济增长一般依赖于资产升值与信用扩张之间的循环。但是。如果这一循环演变成全面而巨大的资产和信用泡沫，泡沫破灭后经济就会面临大调整。在信用货币制和货币扩张政策下，调整会采取经济持续停滞的慢性形式。进入新世纪以来，美国以房产市场接替了股市泡沫，最终形成了巨大房产泡沫。美日泡沫在性质上都具有全面性，都涉及房产市场、股票市场与信用市场；在规模上都特别巨大，远超历史记录；基本原因在于金融自由化和货币扩张政策。因此，美国可能将陷入持续停滞或缓慢增长的日本式后泡沫困境。
20세기80년대이래，발체국가적경제증장일반의뢰우자산승치여신용확장지간적순배。단시。여과저일순배연변성전면이거대적자산화신용포말，포말파멸후경제취회면림대조정。재신용화폐제화화폐확장정책하，조정회채취경제지속정체적만성형식。진입신세기이래，미국이방산시장접체료고시포말，최종형성료거대방산포말。미일포말재성질상도구유전면성，도섭급방산시장、고표시장여신용시장；재규모상도특별거대，원초역사기록；기본원인재우금융자유화화화폐확장정책。인차，미국가능장함입지속정체혹완만증장적일본식후포말곤경。
Since the beginning of 1980s, economic growth of advanced economies depends on virtuous cycle between asset appreciation and credit expansion. However, once such cycle evolves into all-around and huge bubbles, substantial post-bubble restructuring will confront the economy after the bubble busting, while the restructuring assumes the chronic form of permanent stagnation. The US had relayed the dotcom bubble with property appreciation since the beginning of this century, ending up with a gigantic housing bubble. The bubbles of the US nowadays resemble those of Japan in the latter of 1980s in, a） systematic nature in that they both involve housing market, stock market and credit market; b） huge scale far exceeding record levels; c） root causes of financial liberalization and monetary expansion. Consequently,.it is very likely for the US to be trapped into the Japanese style post-bubble plight of permanent stagnation or very slow growth.