CAJ | 학술논문

利用1994年1月至2008年1月的月度数据，采用外汇市场压力的货币模型，构建了人民币外汇市场升值压力指数，并利用向量自回归方法研究了中央银行国内信贷变化、中美相对经济增长率变化、中国利率水平变化与外汇市场压力之间的相互作用，探讨了美国基础货币增长、美国利率水平变化等外生变量对人民币升值压力的影响。发现中国中央银行国内信贷与人民币升值压力呈现负向关系，而中国经济增长和国内利率水平与人民币升值压力呈正向关系。当人民币升值压力增加时，货币当局的反应是减少其净国内信贷，而国内利率水平的变化则并不显著地反映人民币升值压力的变化。
이용1994년1월지2008년1월적월도수거，채용외회시장압력적화폐모형，구건료인민폐외회시장승치압력지수，병이용향량자회귀방법연구료중앙은행국내신대변화、중미상대경제증장솔변화、중국리솔수평변화여외회시장압력지간적상호작용，탐토료미국기출화폐증장、미국리솔수평변화등외생변량대인민폐승치압력적영향。발현중국중앙은행국내신대여인민폐승치압력정현부향관계，이중국경제증장화국내리솔수평여인민폐승치압력정정향관계。당인민폐승치압력증가시，화폐당국적반응시감소기정국내신대，이국내리솔수평적변화칙병불현저지반영인민폐승치압력적변화。
Based on a monetary model this study derives a measure of Renminbi foreign exchange market pressure （EMP）, and investigates the interactions between EMP, central bank domestic credit, China＇s relative economic growth rate against US, and domestic interest rate. Also this paper explores the impacts of US monetary base and interest rate on China＇ s EMP. Monthly data for the period 1994-01 to 2008-01 and a VAR methodology are used. We found some evidence of a negative relationship between Renminbi appreciation pressure and central bank domestic credit, as well as positive relationships between Renminbi appreciation pressure and economic growth, domestic interest rate respectively. Also there is some evidence that EMP affects domestic credit negatively, while no significant impacts on China＇s interest rate.