CAJ | 학술논문

目前对中国税收增速大于GDP增速的研究多从经济增长、征管水平提升、GDP结构与税收结构差异、地方政府廉价批地所引致的高税产业高速发展等因素出发进行定性或较简单的实证研究。本文从GDP的产业结构以及各产业税负率入手，构建税收增速大于GDP增速的理论模型，并提供了相应的算法。该算法能测算各产业对此现象的“贡献”。我们试图为理解税收增速大于GDP增速的研究路径以及预测宏观税负率增减提供参考建议。
목전대중국세수증속대우GDP증속적연구다종경제증장、정관수평제승、GDP결구여세수결구차이、지방정부렴개비지소인치적고세산업고속발전등인소출발진행정성혹교간단적실증연구。본문종GDP적산업결구이급각산업세부솔입수，구건세수증속대우GDP증속적이론모형，병제공료상응적산법。해산법능측산각산업대차현상적“공헌”。아문시도위리해세수증속대우GDP증속적연구로경이급예측굉관세부솔증감제공삼고건의。
Recently, qualitative and comparatively simple positive research on tax revenue increase more than GDP increase are mostly based upon some factors, such as economic growth, levy technology enhancement, difference between struc- ture of GDP and tax, excessive increase of high-tax industries due to local governments＇ land-leasing behavior, etc. We firstly develop a theoretical model and responding algorithm about this phenomenon based on industry structure and their tax burden. Our model explicitly takes into account every industry＇s contribution to this phenomenon. We attempt to provide a path for explaining tax revenue increase more than GDP increase and suggestion for forecasting the change of macro-tax burden.