CAJ | 학술논문

近10年以来，湖南省耕地面积连年减少，人均耕地面积接近众多专家学者提出的人均耕地警界线，耕地安全受到严重威胁。通过分析全省耕地安全存在的问题，同时利用灰色系统GM（1，1）模型和一元回归分析模型对全省在全面建设小康社会时期的耕地供给量和需求量进行预测分析，结果表明全省在2010、2015和2020年耕地需求量大于供给量，耕地安全指数分别是93．0％、87.3％和84．0％，耕地安全保障形势严峻。
근10년이래，호남성경지면적련년감소，인균경지면적접근음다전가학자제출적인균경지경계선，경지안전수도엄중위협。통과분석전성경지안전존재적문제，동시이용회색계통GM（1，1）모형화일원회귀분석모형대전성재전면건설소강사회시기적경지공급량화수구량진행예측분석，결과표명전성재2010、2015화2020년경지수구량대우공급량，경지안전지수분별시93．0％、87.3％화84．0％，경지안전보장형세엄준。
In the last ten years, farmland in Hunan Province has successively decreased and per capita farmland area has touched the low enforcement line, the safety of farmland being seriously threatened. This paper analyzes the problem of farmland safety in the province, making use of the GM （ 1,1 ） model and linear regression model to forecast and analyze the farmland supply and demand of the province in the period of completely building a well-off society. The result indicates that the demand for farmland in the years of 2010,2015 and 2020 will be greater that the supply,the farmland safety index varying from 87.3% to 93.0%. The farmland safety guarantee of Hunan Province will be a serious problem.