上海财经大学学报：哲学社会科学版
上海財經大學學報：哲學社會科學版
상해재경대학학보：철학사회과학판
Journal of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
2008年
5期
65~72
,共null页
利率 流动性过剩 人民币升值 外汇贷款 资产价格
利率 流動性過剩 人民幣升值 外彙貸款 資產價格
리솔 류동성과잉 인민폐승치 외회대관 자산개격
interest rate; excess liquidity; RMB appreciation; foreign exchange loans; asset prices
在我国当前宏观经济发展的背景下，为应对金融市场上的流动性过剩和通货膨胀，需要上调利率。但利率的提高不仅会增加投机资本的流入和人民币升值的压力，还会引发外币贷款的迅速增长，从而加剧流动性过剩的压力；同时，利率的上升并不能有效地控制房价，反而会导致商业银行信贷风险的上升。另外，利率调控的不对称性还影响了中央银行调控的效果和强度。本文主要分析我国利率调控面临的困境，并给出了相应的政策含义。
在我國噹前宏觀經濟髮展的揹景下，為應對金融市場上的流動性過剩和通貨膨脹，需要上調利率。但利率的提高不僅會增加投機資本的流入和人民幣升值的壓力，還會引髮外幣貸款的迅速增長，從而加劇流動性過剩的壓力；同時，利率的上升併不能有效地控製房價，反而會導緻商業銀行信貸風險的上升。另外，利率調控的不對稱性還影響瞭中央銀行調控的效果和彊度。本文主要分析我國利率調控麵臨的睏境，併給齣瞭相應的政策含義。
재아국당전굉관경제발전적배경하，위응대금융시장상적류동성과잉화통화팽창，수요상조리솔。단리솔적제고불부회증가투궤자본적류입화인민폐승치적압력，환회인발외폐대관적신속증장，종이가극류동성과잉적압력；동시，리솔적상승병불능유효지공제방개，반이회도치상업은행신대풍험적상승。령외，리솔조공적불대칭성환영향료중앙은행조공적효과화강도。본문주요분석아국리솔조공면림적곤경，병급출료상응적정책함의。
On the background of Chinese current macro economy, interest rate should be raised in order to control excess liquidity on the financial market and the inflation. But increasing interest rate not only will lead to more speculating capital and put higher pressure on RMB appreciation, but also will result in rapid growth of foreign exchange loans, further exacerbating excess liquidity. Meanwhile, increasing interest rate cannot effectively control real estate prices, and will bring about higher credit risk of commercial banks. In addition, the asymmetry of interest rate control has a significant effect on the results of macro economy regulations. The paper mainly analyzes the dilemma of interest rate control, and puts forward some corresponding policy implications.
