经济管理
經濟管理
경제관리
Economic Management Journal（EMJ）
2008年
19期
77~82
,共null页
logistic模型 利润操纵 财务指标 识别模型
logistic模型 利潤操縱 財務指標 識彆模型
logistic모형 리윤조종 재무지표 식별모형
logistic model; earnings manipulation; financial indexes; recognizing model
如何科学、合理地验证和识别利润操纵行为是会计界需要探讨的一个重要课题。本文从分析上市公司利润操纵的主要手段、相关会计科目与财务指标入手，设计和筛选用于利润操纵识别的指标，在此基础上，选取我国证监会以利润操纵名义查处的35家上市公司及35家对照公司做为研究样本进行实证研究。运用Logistic回归模型构建上市公司利润操纵行为识别模型，识别正确率为80％。
如何科學、閤理地驗證和識彆利潤操縱行為是會計界需要探討的一箇重要課題。本文從分析上市公司利潤操縱的主要手段、相關會計科目與財務指標入手，設計和篩選用于利潤操縱識彆的指標，在此基礎上，選取我國證鑑會以利潤操縱名義查處的35傢上市公司及35傢對照公司做為研究樣本進行實證研究。運用Logistic迴歸模型構建上市公司利潤操縱行為識彆模型，識彆正確率為80％。
여하과학、합리지험증화식별리윤조종행위시회계계수요탐토적일개중요과제。본문종분석상시공사리윤조종적주요수단、상관회계과목여재무지표입수，설계화사선용우리윤조종식별적지표，재차기출상，선취아국증감회이리윤조종명의사처적35가상시공사급35가대조공사주위연구양본진행실증연구。운용Logistic회귀모형구건상시공사리윤조종행위식별모형，식별정학솔위80％。
It is an important task for us to validate and identify the earning manipulation behavior scientifically and reasonably. This paper is based on the analysis of aims and major tricks of earnings manipulation from listed companies, the relative charts of accounts and financial indexes being affected. The authors have used Logistic model to construct earnings manipulation recognizing model which is based on the accounting indexes designed and selected, and to access the probability of earnings manipulation. The authors have chosen 35 listed companies which were accused of having earnings manipulation by CSRC, and 35 contrast companies, as the study objects, have done an empirical study. The model has got the exactness rates of 80%.
