CAJ | 학술논문

迄今的长期经济增长历史表明，经济增长速度具有“驼峰形”特征，即中等收入时增长速度快，人均收入水平高时次之，收入水平低时最慢。经济增长的历史同时表明，增长速度快的时期几乎都伴随着经济结构剧烈变化。本文试图在新古典理论框架内，构建经济增长模型来解释驼峰形特征以及促成它的经济结构变化。数值实验表明，模型结果合理地解释“驼峰形”的经济事实，而且与Kaldor事实和Kuznetz事实同时相容。
흘금적장기경제증장역사표명，경제증장속도구유“타봉형”특정，즉중등수입시증장속도쾌，인균수입수평고시차지，수입수평저시최만。경제증장적역사동시표명，증장속도쾌적시기궤호도반수착경제결구극렬변화。본문시도재신고전이론광가내，구건경제증장모형래해석타봉형특정이급촉성타적경제결구변화。수치실험표명，모형결과합리지해석“타봉형”적경제사실，이차여Kaldor사실화Kuznetz사실동시상용。
In the well-known economic history, we find there would be a hump-shaped fact of economic growth rate. Growth is slow when per capita GDP is low or high, while quick when per capita GDP is at the middle level. The history of economic growth shows at the same time that the eras of the quick growth are almost these of violent changes in economic structure. This paper tries to construct a three-sector t~.owth model in the neoclassical growth framework to explain the hump-shaped fact and the structural changes behind it. The numerical simulation shows that the results of the model may combine Kaldor facts with Kuznets facts and explain the ＂hump-shaped＂ economic facts reasonably.