CAJ | 학술논문

本文在货币流动性理论的基础上，从流动性的需求角度出发，运用主成分分析方法，建立了综合评价人民币流动性需求的数量模型。通过研究得出结论：从2005年开始，我国开始出现流动性过剩趋势；传统流动性衡量指标不能正确反映2005年以来我国流动性的过剩趋势；人民币流动性需求主要是由居民报酬支出、城镇收入消费、投资和国债这四大主成分决定的；而且我国流动性需求周期性变化主要由居民报酬支出变化引起。
본문재화폐류동성이론적기출상，종류동성적수구각도출발，운용주성분분석방법，건립료종합평개인민폐류동성수구적수량모형。통과연구득출결론：종2005년개시，아국개시출현류동성과잉추세；전통류동성형량지표불능정학반영2005년이래아국류동성적과잉추세；인민폐류동성수구주요시유거민보수지출、성진수입소비、투자화국채저사대주성분결정적；이차아국류동성수구주기성변화주요유거민보수지출변화인기。
On the base of monetary liquidity theory, this paper develops Principal Component Analysis method for establishing a quantitative model of RMB liquidity from the aspect of liquidity demand. Available data suggest that, since 2005, there has been a trend of excess liquidity in China; however, traditional indexes couldn＇t support that. To examine this trend, we conclude all the data into four principal components-Resident Earning ＆ Payout, City Income ＆ Consumption, Investment and Public Debt. We find that RMB liquidity demand changes cyclically due to the cyclical changes of Resident Earning ＆ Payout.