CAJ | 학술논문

改革开放以来,我国经历了数次经济周期和宏观经济政策调整,正确认识与把握中国经济周期的特点,对于改善宏观调控、促进国民经济稳定快速发展有着重要意义。文章首先考察了1978-2007年间中国历次经济周期的运行规律与波动特征,并结合中国实际情况,从所有制结构、社会总供求关系、经济结构、价格体制、调控手段和对外开放度等方面分析宏观调控对我国经济波动形成机制产生的影响;接着从国际经济周期的角度考察了中国、美国与世界经济周期的同步性特征,以及中国与世界其他15个不同市场类型的国家和地区之间经济周期存在的特征事实;最后给出了主要结论及政策建议。
개혁개방이래,아국경력료수차경제주기화굉관경제정책조정,정학인식여파악중국경제주기적특점,대우개선굉관조공、촉진국민경제은정쾌속발전유착중요의의。문장수선고찰료1978-2007년간중국력차경제주기적운행규률여파동특정,병결합중국실제정황,종소유제결구、사회총공구관계、경제결구、개격체제、조공수단화대외개방도등방면분석굉관조공대아국경제파동형성궤제산생적영향;접착종국제경제주기적각도고찰료중국、미국여세계경제주기적동보성특정,이급중국여세계기타15개불동시장류형적국가화지구지간경제주기존재적특정사실;최후급출료주요결론급정책건의。
China has experienced several economic cycles and macro-economic policy adjustments since reform and opening-up. Cyclical features will be of great significance to improve macro-control and promote the stable and fast development of our national economy. The paper studies the operation rules and fluctuation features of Chinese economic cycles, and analyzes the effects of macro-control on the mechanism for generating economic fluctuation from the aspects of ownership structure, the relation between aggregate social supply and demand, economic structure, price regime, macro-control tools and the level of opening-up. Then it analyzes the synchronicity among economic fluctuations of China, America and the world from the perspective of global economic cycle and the cyclical facts between China and other 15 countries which are different in market type. At last, some conclusions and policy suggestions are given.