CAJ | 학술논문

文章突破传统宏观经济学把经济增长与经济波动分开研究的两分法．利用面板数据的分析框架实证研究了亚洲”四小虎”经济增长与经济波动的关系。实证的结论支持了经济增长与经济波动的负相关关系，否定了Black假说。同时以亚洲金融危机为临界点，发现经济增长与经济波动的负相关关系在各个区间上具有稳健性，这是各国采取违背本国比较优势的赶超战略的后果。因此各国应从本国具有比较优势的产业出发，增加经济结构的内在稳定性，防止经济波动。
문장돌파전통굉관경제학파경제증장여경제파동분개연구적량분법．이용면판수거적분석광가실증연구료아주”사소호”경제증장여경제파동적관계。실증적결론지지료경제증장여경제파동적부상관관계，부정료Black가설。동시이아주금융위궤위림계점，발현경제증장여경제파동적부상관관계재각개구간상구유은건성，저시각국채취위배본국비교우세적간초전략적후과。인차각국응종본국구유비교우세적산업출발，증가경제결구적내재은정성，방지경제파동。
To empirically analyze the relationship between Four Asian Tigers＇ economic growth and variability, this paper presents an analytical framework of panel data against the standard dichotomy in macroeconomics that separates growth from the variability. The empirical result finds out that the relationship is significantly negative, which is contrary to Black hypothesis, and is robust when we re-examine the relationship in a different period at the critical point of Asian financial crisis. It assumes that it is the consequence of adopting a ＂forging ahead＂ development strategy inconsistent with the comparative advantage of the economy. Our policy implication is to bring out each country＇ comparative advantage into full play and strengthen the inner stability of economic structure, which is important to keep economic growth stable.