金融研究
金融研究
금융연구
Journal of Financial Research
2008年
12期
37~46
,共null页
流动性过多 外汇储备 货币政策
流動性過多 外彙儲備 貨幣政策
류동성과다 외회저비 화폐정책
excess liquidity, foreign reserves, monetary policy
本文以流动性的界定以及流动性过多原因分析为起点，试图探究并论证我国流动性过多与外汇储备过度累计两者之间的关系及其作用机制。通过2000～2007年时间序列数据的经验研究表明，中国流动性过多与外汇储备累积之间存在双向因果关系。因此，要解决流动性过多问题，短期而言要缓解外汇储备过度累积，长期而言，要在外汇储备管理体制、人民币汇率制度、外汇市场交易体系等方面进行体制改革，从根本上切断外汇储备与货币供应之间的被动联系。
本文以流動性的界定以及流動性過多原因分析為起點，試圖探究併論證我國流動性過多與外彙儲備過度纍計兩者之間的關繫及其作用機製。通過2000～2007年時間序列數據的經驗研究錶明，中國流動性過多與外彙儲備纍積之間存在雙嚮因果關繫。因此，要解決流動性過多問題，短期而言要緩解外彙儲備過度纍積，長期而言，要在外彙儲備管理體製、人民幣彙率製度、外彙市場交易體繫等方麵進行體製改革，從根本上切斷外彙儲備與貨幣供應之間的被動聯繫。
본문이류동성적계정이급류동성과다원인분석위기점，시도탐구병론증아국류동성과다여외회저비과도루계량자지간적관계급기작용궤제。통과2000～2007년시간서렬수거적경험연구표명，중국류동성과다여외회저비루적지간존재쌍향인과관계。인차，요해결류동성과다문제，단기이언요완해외회저비과도루적，장기이언，요재외회저비관리체제、인민폐회솔제도、외회시장교역체계등방면진행체제개혁，종근본상절단외회저비여화폐공응지간적피동련계。
Based on the definition of liquidity and the reason of excess liquidity, the paper discusses the relationship between excess liquidity and foreign reserve accumulation and hence the reasonable mechanism of the impaction. The empirical test based on a time series sample from 2000 ~ 2007 shows that, there is a positive cross-relationship between liquidity surplus and foreign reserve balance. Which in the short run means that the way to solve the problem of excess liquidity is also the approach to diminish the foreign reserve over accumulation, and vice versa. In the long term, reform of the current foreign reserve management system, RMB exchange rate mechanism, and the foreign exchange trading system should be adopted, so as to cut off the passive relationship between foreign reserve balance and monetary supply.
