亚太经济
亞太經濟
아태경제
Asia-Pacific Economic Review
2009年
1期
67~72
,共null页
通货膨胀 通货膨胀波动性 GARCH族模型 稳健性检验
通貨膨脹 通貨膨脹波動性 GARCH族模型 穩健性檢驗
통화팽창 통화팽창파동성 GARCH족모형 은건성검험
East Asian monetary cooperation; Four-variable structural VAR model; Spearman rank correlation; Impulse Response; Variance Decomposition
中国的通货膨胀及其波动性之间存在稳定的正向相关关系；而美国通货膨胀及其渡动性之间没有因果关系却存在负向的相关关系。相对于美国，中国对通货膨胀的控制比追求经济增长更重要。
中國的通貨膨脹及其波動性之間存在穩定的正嚮相關關繫；而美國通貨膨脹及其渡動性之間沒有因果關繫卻存在負嚮的相關關繫。相對于美國，中國對通貨膨脹的控製比追求經濟增長更重要。
중국적통화팽창급기파동성지간존재은정적정향상관관계；이미국통화팽창급기도동성지간몰유인과관계각존재부향적상관관계。상대우미국，중국대통화팽창적공제비추구경제증장경중요。
To explore whether the East Asian countries or areas are suitable to form an optimal currency area, we constructed a four-variable structural VAR model. Our research show it is not suitable to found a comprehensive single currency union in East Asia, however, it is possible to respectively form a sub-currency zone in two groups of countries or areas, which include ＂China, Hong Kong, Philippines and Thailand＂ and ＂China, Malaysia, Philippines＂, and this finding is kind of different from our common sense from geostrategic views.
