上海金融
上海金融
상해금융
Shanghai Finance
2009年
1期
14~18
,共null页
信用货币制度 内在规律 全球M2／GDP 倒“U”
信用貨幣製度 內在規律 全毬M2／GDP 倒“U”
신용화폐제도 내재규률 전구M2／GDP 도“U”
Credit Currency System; Intrinsic Law; Global M2/GDP; Inverted-U
本文以1971年作为信用货币制度确立的重要时点。对全球及不同经济发展水平国家的M2／GDP水平和趋势进行了分析，发现M2／GDP〉1不只是中国独有的现象，世界平均M2／GDP持续上升。截至目前，在信用货币制度下并没有任何一个国家的M2／GDP呈现完整的“倒U”型，反而有更多的国家出现M2〉GDP的现象，且差距会增大，即呈现喇叭口趋势。本文重点探讨了信用货币制度的内在规律：货币数量无限增长与实体经济运行所需货币量相对减少，这是货币数量的绝对增长超越经济规模的根本原因。信用货币制度的内在规律必然导致数额庞大的货币资产游离于实体经济之外．成为全球“流动性过剩”的根源．而现行的各国央行调控货币供求关系的工具最终会加速货币的繁衍，通胀和滞胀己成为经济运行中的常见现象，经济危机的形态也由生产过剩的危机演变为金融危机和货币危机。基于信用货币制度的内在规律，我们对在不改变信用货币制度前提下任何试图取代美元的国际货币新体系的努力持谨慎态度。
本文以1971年作為信用貨幣製度確立的重要時點。對全毬及不同經濟髮展水平國傢的M2／GDP水平和趨勢進行瞭分析，髮現M2／GDP〉1不隻是中國獨有的現象，世界平均M2／GDP持續上升。截至目前，在信用貨幣製度下併沒有任何一箇國傢的M2／GDP呈現完整的“倒U”型，反而有更多的國傢齣現M2〉GDP的現象，且差距會增大，即呈現喇叭口趨勢。本文重點探討瞭信用貨幣製度的內在規律：貨幣數量無限增長與實體經濟運行所需貨幣量相對減少，這是貨幣數量的絕對增長超越經濟規模的根本原因。信用貨幣製度的內在規律必然導緻數額龐大的貨幣資產遊離于實體經濟之外．成為全毬“流動性過剩”的根源．而現行的各國央行調控貨幣供求關繫的工具最終會加速貨幣的繁衍，通脹和滯脹己成為經濟運行中的常見現象，經濟危機的形態也由生產過剩的危機縯變為金融危機和貨幣危機。基于信用貨幣製度的內在規律，我們對在不改變信用貨幣製度前提下任何試圖取代美元的國際貨幣新體繫的努力持謹慎態度。
본문이1971년작위신용화폐제도학립적중요시점。대전구급불동경제발전수평국가적M2／GDP수평화추세진행료분석，발현M2／GDP〉1불지시중국독유적현상，세계평균M2／GDP지속상승。절지목전，재신용화폐제도하병몰유임하일개국가적M2／GDP정현완정적“도U”형，반이유경다적국가출현M2〉GDP적현상，차차거회증대，즉정현나팔구추세。본문중점탐토료신용화폐제도적내재규률：화폐수량무한증장여실체경제운행소수화폐량상대감소，저시화폐수량적절대증장초월경제규모적근본원인。신용화폐제도적내재규률필연도치수액방대적화폐자산유리우실체경제지외．성위전구“류동성과잉”적근원．이현행적각국앙행조공화폐공구관계적공구최종회가속화폐적번연，통창화체창기성위경제운행중적상견현상，경제위궤적형태야유생산과잉적위궤연변위금융위궤화화폐위궤。기우신용화폐제도적내재규률，아문대재불개변신용화폐제도전제하임하시도취대미원적국제화폐신체계적노력지근신태도。
A Taking 1971 as a critical juncture during the establishment of credit currency system, this paper analyzes the level and trend of global M2/GDP, as well as countries with different economic development. The results demonstrated that M2/GDP〉I is not a unique phenomenon that is confined to China, actually the world＇s average M2/ GDP is continually rising. At the same time, the empirical analysis showed that no country＇s M2/GDP had a complete inverted-U shape under the credit currency system up to now. Instead, there are more countries with larger M2 than the GDP, and the gap between M2 and GDP is continuously increasing. This article focuses on the intrinsic law of credit currency system. Unlimited growth of currency is the root causing the amount of credit currency to grow more rapidly than the economic scale. The intrinsic law of credit currency system is bound to lead a huge amount of monetary assets to drift away from the real economy, thus forming liquidity surplus. Current central banks＂ control will eventually speed up the proliferation of currency. Stagflation and imqation has become the main common phenomenon in economic operation, and the form of the economic crisis has transferred from over-production crisis into financial crisis and currency crisis. Any attempt to replace the U.S. currency system in the premise of the intrinsic law of credit currency system should be cautious.
