CAJ | 학술논문

新中国成立以来，中国粮食生产总体上呈现波动上升的趋势，在区域上粮食生产重心出现“北进中移”的态势，粮食产销格局已由“南粮北调”转变为“北粮南调”。利用相关统计资料，简要分析了中国粮食生产变化趋势。从生产和消费角度，基于区域粮食产量差异和比较优势指数模型，对1990--2005年各地区粮食生产的区域变化进行了定量分析，其结果验证了我国粮食生产格局变动的总体特征。在全国人均粮食产量略有增加的背景下，部分省区人均粮食占有量有不同程度的降低，尤其是沿海经济发达省区的粮食生产呈现快速下降态势。为了保障国家粮食安全，应当在发掘各地区粮食生产潜力的同时，充分发挥粮食作物的区域比较优势，保障和稳定基地化的农业生产，着力提高粮食综合生产能力。
신중국성립이래，중국양식생산총체상정현파동상승적추세，재구역상양식생산중심출현“북진중이”적태세，양식산소격국이유“남량북조”전변위“북량남조”。이용상관통계자료，간요분석료중국양식생산변화추세。종생산화소비각도，기우구역양식산량차이화비교우세지수모형，대1990--2005년각지구양식생산적구역변화진행료정량분석，기결과험증료아국양식생산격국변동적총체특정。재전국인균양식산량략유증가적배경하，부분성구인균양식점유량유불동정도적강저，우기시연해경제발체성구적양식생산정현쾌속하강태세。위료보장국가양식안전，응당재발굴각지구양식생산잠력적동시，충분발휘양식작물적구역비교우세，보장화은정기지화적농업생산，착력제고양식종합생산능력。
The spatial-temporal pattern changes of grain production indicate that ＂goes to north and centre＂ is the overall characteristic of grain pattern changes since 1990s, the North and Central China have been new growth center of grain production. Based on recent statistic data from 1990 to 2005, the grain production trend and ap- praisal index system, grain production ability was analyzed simply, and the regional changes pattern of grain pro- duction was researched further using the comparative advantage and per capita grain models in this paper, the re- sults validate the overall characteristics of grain pattern changes in China. Under the increase background of per ca- pita grain production, the grain production cut down in some regions, especially economic developed regions of southeast China. With the agricultural structure adjustment, the surplus and shortage spacial patterns of grain pro- duction have formed since 1990s. Finally, some suggestions were presented such as with a view to developing re- gional resources potential and comparative advantage, advancing the integrated capacity of grain production in main grain productive area, keeping within limits of decrease of per capita grain production for grain-shortage region, and setting up long-effect mechanism of the grain circulation in different provincial region scale.