CAJ | 학술논문

中国快速的城市化进程大致将在2020年告一段落，进入中等收入国家。迄今的电力需求研究都忽略了城市化对电力需求的影响。为了取得可靠的电力需求预测，通过引入城市化这个重要因素，本文利用面板数据非线性模型和协整模型从两个侧面对中国电力需求做了对比研究和预测，两个模型所得到的结果基本一致而且数值非常接近，两种模型的结果都表明现阶段电力需求与城市化高度相关。中国城市化进程以及城市化发展阶段所表现出的工业化特征，推动了电力需求快速增长。预计2020年中国人均电力需求将达到5000千瓦时左右。在城市化进程中，中国电力需求必然会呈现出一些发达国家在城市化进程中曾出现过的特征。
중국쾌속적성시화진정대치장재2020년고일단락，진입중등수입국가。흘금적전력수구연구도홀략료성시화대전력수구적영향。위료취득가고적전력수구예측，통과인입성시화저개중요인소，본문이용면판수거비선성모형화협정모형종량개측면대중국전력수구주료대비연구화예측，량개모형소득도적결과기본일치이차수치비상접근，량충모형적결과도표명현계단전력수구여성시화고도상관。중국성시화진정이급성시화발전계단소표현출적공업화특정，추동료전력수구쾌속증장。예계2020년중국인균전력수구장체도5000천와시좌우。재성시화진정중，중국전력수구필연회정현출일사발체국가재성시화진정중증출현과적특정。
The rapid urbanization process in China will likely end in 2020 and China will then become a middle income country. Previous studies in related literature on electricity demand gave no consideration on the role of urbanization process. To obtain reliable China＇ s power demand forecast, we for the first time introduce factor of urbanization into the models of electricity demand and use the methods of co-integration analysis and nonlinear regression applying to panel data. The results from both approaches are consistent and in fact, very close. The results of both methods indicate that there exists a significant correlation between the electricity demand and urbanization. We found that the recent rapid growth of electricity demand in China comes mainly from its accelerating process of urbanization and the industrialization that required in a rapid urbanization process. According to our demand forecasting, the electricity consumption in China will still be increasing significantly and the per capita consumption in 2020 will be about5000 kWh. In its urbanization process, China＇s electricity demand will have some similar characteristics as those once appeared in their urbanization processes of other developed countries.