改革与战略
改革與戰略
개혁여전략
Reformation & Strategy
2009年
2期
128~131
,共null页
产业结构 能源消费 向量误差修正 模型
產業結構 能源消費 嚮量誤差脩正 模型
산업결구 능원소비 향량오차수정 모형
industrial structure; energy consumption; vector error correction; model
为了探究影响中国能源消费增长的内在规律,文章运用协整分析方法对能源消费与产业结构变化之间的关系进行了定量分析,并建立了向量误差修正模型。研究结果表明,能源消费与第一、二产业产值之间具有单向因果关系,能源消费与第三产业产值之间不存在显著的因果关系。从短期波动角度看,能源消费量增长对中国第一和第二产业发展影响各不相同。从长期均衡关系来看,能源消费对中国第一和第二产业产值的增长具有一定的同向拉动作用。通过这些分析结论,我们可以更有针对性地提出解决中国能源供需失衡问题的方案。
為瞭探究影響中國能源消費增長的內在規律,文章運用協整分析方法對能源消費與產業結構變化之間的關繫進行瞭定量分析,併建立瞭嚮量誤差脩正模型。研究結果錶明,能源消費與第一、二產業產值之間具有單嚮因果關繫,能源消費與第三產業產值之間不存在顯著的因果關繫。從短期波動角度看,能源消費量增長對中國第一和第二產業髮展影響各不相同。從長期均衡關繫來看,能源消費對中國第一和第二產業產值的增長具有一定的同嚮拉動作用。通過這些分析結論,我們可以更有針對性地提齣解決中國能源供需失衡問題的方案。
위료탐구영향중국능원소비증장적내재규률,문장운용협정분석방법대능원소비여산업결구변화지간적관계진행료정량분석,병건립료향량오차수정모형。연구결과표명,능원소비여제일、이산업산치지간구유단향인과관계,능원소비여제삼산업산치지간불존재현저적인과관계。종단기파동각도간,능원소비량증장대중국제일화제이산업발전영향각불상동。종장기균형관계래간,능원소비대중국제일화제이산업산치적증장구유일정적동향랍동작용。통과저사분석결론,아문가이경유침대성지제출해결중국능원공수실형문제적방안。
In order to understand the law of China's energy consumption growth, we use co-integration method and build up the vector error correction model to do quantitative analysis on the relationship among China's three industries' output values and its energy consumption. The results can be summarized as follows: i) There is one-way causality relationship between the energy consumption and the output value of the first and the second industry, but the no obvious causality relationship exists between the energy consumption and the output value of the third industry, ii) The impacts of the energy consumption on the output value of the first and the second industry are not the same in the short term; iii) The increase of energy consumption has positive effect on the first and the second industry's development in the long term. Knowing these clearly will help us to take more specific measures to balance the energy supply and demand.