CAJ | 학술논문

2007年初以来，我国经历了新一轮居民消费价格指数（CPI）的大幅上涨，环比指数在2008年2月达到了近十年的最高点108．7％，CPI走势及其传导机制已成为各界对经济关注的焦点。本文选取了5个与CPI相关的指标．运用VAR模型，分析其对CPI的传导机制，得出CPI对自身反应较为敏感，原材料、燃料和动力购进价格指数及PPI对CPI的传导效应不明显，固定资产投资价格指数、货币供应增长率对CPI的冲击较大，外汇储备增长率对CPI的直接影响较小但间接作用不可忽视。对此，应严格控制固定资产投资的非理性因素，继续实行稳健的货币政策，同时改革价格体制、理顺价格关系也势在必行。
2007년초이래，아국경력료신일륜거민소비개격지수（CPI）적대폭상창，배비지수재2008년2월체도료근십년적최고점108．7％，CPI주세급기전도궤제이성위각계대경제관주적초점。본문선취료5개여CPI상관적지표．운용VAR모형，분석기대CPI적전도궤제，득출CPI대자신반응교위민감，원재료、연료화동력구진개격지수급PPI대CPI적전도효응불명현，고정자산투자개격지수、화폐공응증장솔대CPI적충격교대，외회저비증장솔대CPI적직접영향교소단간접작용불가홀시。대차，응엄격공제고정자산투자적비이성인소，계속실행은건적화폐정책，동시개혁개격체제、리순개격관계야세재필행。
China has experienced a new round of substantial rise in CPI since the early 2007. Its loop-ratio has reached its highest point at 108.7% for nearly 10 years. The CPI trend and its transmission mechanism have become the focus for all people who pay concern to economy. This article selects 5 indicators related to CPI and adopts VAR model to analyze the transmission mechanism to CPI. It concludes that CPI is more sensitive to its own reaction while raw materials, fuel and power purchasing price index and PPI are not obvious in CPI transmission effect. The price index for fixed-asset investment and the growth rate of currency supply have big impacts on CPL The growth rate of foreign exchange reserve has a subtle direct impact on CPI, but its indirect impact cannot be ignored. Thus, the government should strictly control the irrational factors in fixed assets investment and continue to implement the moderate monetary policy. Meanwhile, it is also imperative to reform the price system and smooth out the price relation.