科技进步与对策
科技進步與對策
과기진보여대책
Science & Technology Progress and Policy
2009年
5期
31~34
,共null页
产业集群 GERTN络 “成熟”概率
產業集群 GERTN絡 “成熟”概率
산업집군 GERTN락 “성숙”개솔
Industry Cluster; GERT Network; Probability of Mature
运用随机网络理论，构建了区域产业集群形成与发展的GERTN络模型，提出了区域产业集群形成与发展的“夭折”概率与“成熟”概率两个概念。并以高科技产业集群为例求解。在此基础上，研究政府在产业集群的不同阶段给予支持时．各种方案对产业集群形成与发展的作用效果。产业集群“成熟”概率的变化，说明了政府在产业集群发展的初期给予支持是最优的选择，进而说明了政府对产业集群支持的必要性以及支持方案的选择效果。
運用隨機網絡理論，構建瞭區域產業集群形成與髮展的GERTN絡模型，提齣瞭區域產業集群形成與髮展的“夭摺”概率與“成熟”概率兩箇概唸。併以高科技產業集群為例求解。在此基礎上，研究政府在產業集群的不同階段給予支持時．各種方案對產業集群形成與髮展的作用效果。產業集群“成熟”概率的變化，說明瞭政府在產業集群髮展的初期給予支持是最優的選擇，進而說明瞭政府對產業集群支持的必要性以及支持方案的選擇效果。
운용수궤망락이론，구건료구역산업집군형성여발전적GERTN락모형，제출료구역산업집군형성여발전적“요절”개솔여“성숙”개솔량개개념。병이고과기산업집군위례구해。재차기출상，연구정부재산업집군적불동계단급여지지시．각충방안대산업집군형성여발전적작용효과。산업집군“성숙”개솔적변화，설명료정부재산업집군발전적초기급여지지시최우적선택，진이설명료정부대산업집군지지적필요성이급지지방안적선택효과。
In this paper, by using Grey Graphical Evaluation Review Technique （GERT）, a GERT network model is built up to describe the process of formation and development of regional industry cluster. Two concepts, that is, the possibility of ＂collapse＂ and that of ＂maturity＂ of the development of regional industrial cluster, which also set high-tech industrial cluster as an example for solving problems, are bought out in this paper. Then based on the model, the concepts of probability of being premature and probability of mature are proposed. Moreover probability of mature are discussed when support from government are provided at different stages of industry cluster. The conclusions account for the necessary and affection of government support.
