CAJ | 학술논문

本文参照Weymark（1997）等提出的外汇市场压力的概念和理论框架，建立了一个由三个市场和货币当局构成的中国开放经济宏观模型，利用1994年1月至2008年3月的月度宏观经济数据，估计了模型的有关参数，计算了这一期间人民币对美元的外汇市场压力指数和人民银行对外汇市场的干预指数。发现1994年以来，除了东亚金融危机时期的个别月份，人民币对美元都面临升值压力。1994年汇率并轨后，在汇率的决定中，市场机制一度发挥过一定作用，但政府干预程度越来越重，亚洲金融危机之后至2005年汇改以前，干预指数接近于1。2005年7月新一轮汇改之后，汇率决定的市场化程度显著提高。
본문삼조Weymark（1997）등제출적외회시장압력적개념화이론광가，건립료일개유삼개시장화화폐당국구성적중국개방경제굉관모형，이용1994년1월지2008년3월적월도굉관경제수거，고계료모형적유관삼수，계산료저일기간인민폐대미원적외회시장압력지수화인민은행대외회시장적간예지수。발현1994년이래，제료동아금융위궤시기적개별월빈，인민폐대미원도면림승치압력。1994년회솔병궤후，재회솔적결정중，시장궤제일도발휘과일정작용，단정부간예정도월래월중，아주금융위궤지후지2005년회개이전，간예지수접근우1。2005년7월신일륜회개지후，회솔결정적시장화정도현저제고。
Based on Exchange Market Pressure concept and analytical framework put forward by Weymark （ 1997 ）, this paper constructs a China＇s open economy model consisting of three markets and the monetary authority. Using monthly data from January 1994 to March 2008, the author estimates model coefficients and gauges EMP and foreign exchange market intervention index for China. This research finds that renminbi was confronted with appreciation pressure against US dollar after 1994 except several months during East Asian financial Crisis. After 1994, China＇s monetary authority was increasingly involved in foreign exchange market and the intervention index approaches nearly one before the latest exchange rate regime reform in 2005. After the reform, renminbi＇s exchange rate regime is getting more and more market- oriented.