CAJ | 학술논문

用随机抽取的139名大学生和研究生被试，对Oaksford设计的4条条件推理规则的认可度，以及对组成这4条条件推理规则的前后件认可度进行了评定，并根据被试对“条件规则”、组成条件规则的“前件”和“后件”等三个因素上的评定结果各区分为“高”和“低”两个水平。而后对被试在不同评定条件下对每条规则的四种推理结果进行了统计分析。实验结果既支持Oaksford等提出的“推理者对组成条件推理规则的不同的前后件概率组合对推理结论的认可度会有影响”这一观点，也支持邱江等得出的“不同的条件概率对推理者进行推理时对结论认可度的高低会有影响”的论断。前者可称之为“前后件概率的高概率结论效应”，后者可称之为“条件概率的高概率结论效应”。
용수궤추취적139명대학생화연구생피시，대Oaksford설계적4조조건추리규칙적인가도，이급대조성저4조조건추리규칙적전후건인가도진행료평정，병근거피시대“조건규칙”、조성조건규칙적“전건”화“후건”등삼개인소상적평정결과각구분위“고”화“저”량개수평。이후대피시재불동평정조건하대매조규칙적사충추리결과진행료통계분석。실험결과기지지Oaksford등제출적“추리자대조성조건추리규칙적불동적전후건개솔조합대추리결론적인가도회유영향”저일관점，야지지구강등득출적“불동적조건개솔대추리자진행추리시대결론인가도적고저회유영향”적론단。전자가칭지위“전후건개솔적고개솔결론효응”，후자가칭지위“조건개솔적고개솔결론효응”。
This research examines and compares two different types of high-probability conclusion effects in conditional inference proposed by Oaksford et al and Qiu Jiang et al respectively. One hundred and thirty-nine graduate and undergraduate students randomly selected as subjects were first asked to give their acceptance ratings for each of eight conditional rules and then perform a probability rating task for each antecedent and consequent of the eight conditional rules. Both the acceptance ratings of each rule and the probabilities of antecedent and consequent of each rule were divided into high and low levels. A statistic analysis based on these data shows that the results obtained from this research support Oaksford et al＇s argument as well as Qiu Jiang et al＇s argument, i.e. , both the conditional probability and the probabilities of antecedent and consequent are main factors that influence people＇s conditional reasoning. The former can be named as the ＂high probability conclusion effect of antecedent and consequent ＂, and the later as the ＂high probability conclusion effect of conditional probability＂.