心理科学
心理科學
심이과학
Psychological Science
2009年
2期
446~448
,共null页
贝叶斯推理 认知偏向 换位表征 基础比率 锚定参照错误
貝葉斯推理 認知偏嚮 換位錶徵 基礎比率 錨定參照錯誤
패협사추리 인지편향 환위표정 기출비솔 묘정삼조착오
Bayesian reasoning, cognitive bias, conversing presentation, hit rate, anchoring reference error
采用贝叶斯推理问题作为实验材料,通过分析被试推理过程中的理由叙述,探讨被试贝叶斯推理所使用的启发式策略,从认知偏向的角度分析该问题的困难原因。结果发现:(1)在贝叶斯推理过程中,对“击中率”命题的“换位表征”错误和锚定“基础比率”信息导致了“锚定参照错误”偏向,从而表现出对贝叶斯推理成绩显著的高估或低估;(2)“锚定参照错误”偏向程度和锚定参照目标受任务情境的影响;(3)解决良构的问题和非良构的问题时,“换位表征”的现象都有可能发生,而且表现得比较一致。
採用貝葉斯推理問題作為實驗材料,通過分析被試推理過程中的理由敘述,探討被試貝葉斯推理所使用的啟髮式策略,從認知偏嚮的角度分析該問題的睏難原因。結果髮現:(1)在貝葉斯推理過程中,對“擊中率”命題的“換位錶徵”錯誤和錨定“基礎比率”信息導緻瞭“錨定參照錯誤”偏嚮,從而錶現齣對貝葉斯推理成績顯著的高估或低估;(2)“錨定參照錯誤”偏嚮程度和錨定參照目標受任務情境的影響;(3)解決良構的問題和非良構的問題時,“換位錶徵”的現象都有可能髮生,而且錶現得比較一緻。
채용패협사추리문제작위실험재료,통과분석피시추리과정중적이유서술,탐토피시패협사추리소사용적계발식책략,종인지편향적각도분석해문제적곤난원인。결과발현:(1)재패협사추리과정중,대“격중솔”명제적“환위표정”착오화묘정“기출비솔”신식도치료“묘정삼조착오”편향,종이표현출대패협사추리성적현저적고고혹저고;(2)“묘정삼조착오”편향정도화묘정삼조목표수임무정경적영향;(3)해결량구적문제화비량구적문제시,“환위표정”적현상도유가능발생,이차표현득비교일치。
The experiment was conducted to investigate the heuristic strategy of Bayesian reasoning with the classical mammography problem as the experimental material, and the causes of difficulties were analyzed from a cognitive bias angle. The results indicated that (1)The "conversing presentation" of "the hit rate proposition" and anchoring to "the base rate" in the process of Bayesian reasoning led to "anchoring reference error" bias, so significantly higher or lower evaluation of probability could be found; (2) Reasoning task's context could affect the extent of 'anchoring reference error' bias and anchoring reference targets; (3) When good structure problems or not-good structure problems were solved, "conversing presentation" might occur moderately.