四川大学学报：哲学社会科学版
四川大學學報：哲學社會科學版
사천대학학보：철학사회과학판
Journal of Sichuan University(Social Science Edition)
2009年
2期
81~88
,共null页
中国非农产业 就业弹性 面板数据 估算
中國非農產業 就業彈性 麵闆數據 估算
중국비농산업 취업탄성 면판수거 고산
China＇ s Non-Agriculture Sector; Employment Elasticity; Panel-data Model; Estimation
鉴于目前流行的点弹性、弧弹性和回归分析方法的缺陷,重新设计一种基于双效应面板数据模型的估算方法,重估中国非农产业的就业弹性。结果表明,当前东部地区第二产业的就业弹性仍保持在较高的水平,而第三产业已下滑至较低;相反,中西部地区第二产业的就业弹性较低,第三产业仍保持较高水平,但低于人们普遍的预期。并进一步分析这种分布结构的内在原因及其影响。其研究方法和结论可为评估当前经济下滑背景下的就业形势提供参考。
鑒于目前流行的點彈性、弧彈性和迴歸分析方法的缺陷,重新設計一種基于雙效應麵闆數據模型的估算方法,重估中國非農產業的就業彈性。結果錶明,噹前東部地區第二產業的就業彈性仍保持在較高的水平,而第三產業已下滑至較低;相反,中西部地區第二產業的就業彈性較低,第三產業仍保持較高水平,但低于人們普遍的預期。併進一步分析這種分佈結構的內在原因及其影響。其研究方法和結論可為評估噹前經濟下滑揹景下的就業形勢提供參攷。
감우목전류행적점탄성、호탄성화회귀분석방법적결함,중신설계일충기우쌍효응면판수거모형적고산방법,중고중국비농산업적취업탄성。결과표명,당전동부지구제이산업적취업탄성잉보지재교고적수평,이제삼산업이하활지교저;상반,중서부지구제이산업적취업탄성교저,제삼산업잉보지교고수평,단저우인문보편적예기。병진일보분석저충분포결구적내재원인급기영향。기연구방법화결론가위평고당전경제하활배경하적취업형세제공삼고。
The article is to estimate the employment elasticity of China＇ s non-agriculture sector. Because there are many shortcomings in popular estimation methods such as point elasticity, arc elasticity and regression method, the article designs a new method based on dual effect panel-data model. And we analyze employ- ment elasticity from three dimensions： industries, regions and wage. We find that, in the east region, the employment elasticity of industry sector is still high, while that of service sector being comparatively low. On the other hand, in the middle and west regions, the employment elasticity of industry sector is very low, while that of service sector being comparatively high. Furthermore, we＇ ve analyzed the reasons of above findings and their effect. The method and conclusion of this article can help people analyze the effect of present economic recession on China＇ s employment.
