CAJ | 학술논문

失业问题是我国当前和今后相当一个时期最突出的经济和社会问题,货币政策应当在促进就业方面发挥更好的作用。货币供应量是货币政策体系中重要的中介指标,货币政策能否有效地影响就业目标,可以通过分析货币供应量与失业率之间的关系得到量化说明。本文以此为立足点,通过构建基于全部OECD国家的年度面板数据回归模型、部分OECD发达国家季度面板数据的LSDV模型讨论失业率与货币供给之间的关系。分析发现两者在统计上存在显著的＂U＂型非线性关系,在未达到最优货币供给上限时货币供给能够降低失业,但超过界限后则会加重失业。分析结果说明,以货币政策解决失业问题是可行的,关键在于对货币供应操作的正确把握。
실업문제시아국당전화금후상당일개시기최돌출적경제화사회문제,화폐정책응당재촉진취업방면발휘경호적작용。화폐공응량시화폐정책체계중중요적중개지표,화폐정책능부유효지영향취업목표,가이통과분석화폐공응량여실업솔지간적관계득도양화설명。본문이차위립족점,통과구건기우전부OECD국가적년도면판수거회귀모형、부분OECD발체국가계도면판수거적LSDV모형토론실업솔여화폐공급지간적관계。분석발현량자재통계상존재현저적＂U＂형비선성관계,재미체도최우화폐공급상한시화폐공급능구강저실업,단초과계한후칙회가중실업。분석결과설명,이화폐정책해결실업문제시가행적,관건재우대화폐공응조작적정학파악。
Unemployment is and will be one of the most serious economic and social problems in China. And monetary policy should and must take an active part in promoting employment. Money supply is an important mediate target in monetary policy system, and whether the monetary policy can affect unemployment can be quantified through the empirical relation between money supply and unemployment rate. Based on this, the paper discusses the relationship between unemployment rate and money supply by constructing panel data regression model with OECD annual data and LSDV model with quarterly panel data from some developed countries of OECD. The paper finds out that the relationship is a statistically significant U shaped non-linearity and there exists an optimal upper bound for the money supply. Within the bound, more supply of money can promote employment. Once the bound is exceeded, the reverse will happen. The empirical results show that it is feasible to use monetary policy to bring down unemployment, and the important point is the accurate operations of money supply.