改革与战略
改革與戰略
개혁여전략
Reformation & Strategy
2009年
5期
83~85
,共null页
棉花期货 保障作用 价格引导 套保绩效
棉花期貨 保障作用 價格引導 套保績效
면화기화 보장작용 개격인도 투보적효
cotton futures; security effect; guide price; hedging performance
文章通过相关计量方法，以郑棉期货价格与新疆棉花现货价格作为基础，全面、系统地剖析了棉花期货对新疆棉花产业的保障作用。结果发现：郑棉期货价格与新疆棉花现货价格具有双向引导关系，但期价对现价的引导作用相对较大；以月为套保周期，利用郑棉期货市场能分散新疆棉花现货市场中20．8％的非系统风险；棉花期货已经初步具备了保障棉花产业发展的功能。
文章通過相關計量方法，以鄭棉期貨價格與新疆棉花現貨價格作為基礎，全麵、繫統地剖析瞭棉花期貨對新疆棉花產業的保障作用。結果髮現：鄭棉期貨價格與新疆棉花現貨價格具有雙嚮引導關繫，但期價對現價的引導作用相對較大；以月為套保週期，利用鄭棉期貨市場能分散新疆棉花現貨市場中20．8％的非繫統風險；棉花期貨已經初步具備瞭保障棉花產業髮展的功能。
문장통과상관계량방법，이정면기화개격여신강면화현화개격작위기출，전면、계통지부석료면화기화대신강면화산업적보장작용。결과발현：정면기화개격여신강면화현화개격구유쌍향인도관계，단기개대현개적인도작용상대교대；이월위투보주기，이용정면기화시장능분산신강면화현화시장중20．8％적비계통풍험；면화기화이경초보구비료보장면화산업발전적공능。
Based on the future price of Zheng cotton and the current price of cotton in Xinjiang, this paper systematically analyze the security effect of cotton futures on cotton industry in Xinjiang, conclude the following result： there is a bilateral guided relationship between cotton futures and current price, but futures price can exposed an greater on current price; the application of futures market can evade the 20.8 percentage＇s risk which originate from current cotton market in Xinjiang when the hedging period is a month. To some extend, the cotton futures market can afford the task for protecting development of Xinjiang cotton industry.
