CAJ | 학술논문

本文在原有财政风险指数预警的基础上，构建了基于神经网络的财政风险预警系统，得出影响我国财政风险的最重要因素是债务风险，其次是财政收支风险；再次是金融风险和宏观经济风险。2008年我国总体财政风险为中警状态，其中，债务风险为重警状态，财政收支为中警状态，金融风险为中警状态，宏观经济为中警状态。在当前国际经济形势发生重大转折的情况下，我国一定要加强对地方债务的化解力度，减少金融危机对实体经济的冲击，保持宏观经济的平稳增长，这样我国的财政风险便会在可控的范围内。
본문재원유재정풍험지수예경적기출상，구건료기우신경망락적재정풍험예경계통，득출영향아국재정풍험적최중요인소시채무풍험，기차시재정수지풍험；재차시금융풍험화굉관경제풍험。2008년아국총체재정풍험위중경상태，기중，채무풍험위중경상태，재정수지위중경상태，금융풍험위중경상태，굉관경제위중경상태。재당전국제경제형세발생중대전절적정황하，아국일정요가강대지방채무적화해력도，감소금융위궤대실체경제적충격，보지굉관경제적평은증장，저양아국적재정풍험편회재가공적범위내。
The authors construct neural network＇s fiscal risk early-warning system based former index early-warning system. It concludes that the most important factor affecting our country fiscal risk is the debt risk, which occupies 49.17% of the entire fiscal risk. Next is the fiscal revenue and expenditure risk, which occupies 20.06% of the entire fiscal risk. The other factors are financial risk and the macro economic risk, which account for about 8% respectively. The neural network fiscal risk early-warning system forecasts our country overall finance risk in 2008 is as follows. The debt risk will be under heavily risk condition, fiscal revenue and expenditure will be under medium risk condition, financial risk will be under medium risk condition, macro economic will be under medium risk condition. At present the international economy situation has under significant transitions, we should strengthen to resolve local government＇s debt, reduce the financial crisis＇s impact to the real economy, and maintain the macro economic steady growth. In that way our country＇s fiscal risk will be under controllable scope.