CAJ | 학술논문

运用计量分析方法分析了我国能源效率变化的原因和发展趋势，并给出了相关的建议。分析了工业化国家能源效率变化规律及波动原因；在总结国内研究现状的基础上，运用对数平均D氏指数方法分析了我国能源效率的变化原因，认为产业结构变化是2000年后我国能源效率下降的主要原因；运用误差修正模型技术分析了产业结构日益重型化条件下我国能源效率的变化趋势，并得出了随着产业结构重型化的形成和发展我国能源效率会不断降低的结论；最后，从改变经济结构标准、完善能源价格体系和加快发展现代服务业等方面分析了降低能源消耗、提高能源效率的途径。
운용계량분석방법분석료아국능원효솔변화적원인화발전추세，병급출료상관적건의。분석료공업화국가능원효솔변화규률급파동원인；재총결국내연구현상적기출상，운용대수평균D씨지수방법분석료아국능원효솔적변화원인，인위산업결구변화시2000년후아국능원효솔하강적주요원인；운용오차수정모형기술분석료산업결구일익중형화조건하아국능원효솔적변화추세，병득출료수착산업결구중형화적형성화발전아국능원효솔회불단강저적결론；최후，종개변경제결구표준、완선능원개격체계화가쾌발전현대복무업등방면분석료강저능원소모、제고능원효솔적도경。
The reasons why our energy efficiency has changed and its development trends were analyzed by using measurement analysis. Some recommendations are also proposed. Firstly, the energy efficiency and its fluctuations in industrialized countries were discussed. Secondly, based on summing up domestic research status quo, the change reasons of China＇s energy efficiency were analyzed through logarithmic mean Divisia index. It is thought that that industrial structure is the main reasons why China＇s energy efficiency has fallen after 2000. Then, using the error correction model technical analyzes of the change trend of energy efficiency under the conditions of increasingly heavy industrial structure in China, and it is concluded that with the formation and development of heavy industrial, China＇s energy efficiency will continue to reduce. Finally, from changing the economic structure, improving energy price system, speeding up the development of modern Service industry. The ways to lower energy consumption, and improve energy efficiency are given.