科技和产业
科技和產業
과기화산업
SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY AND INDUSTRIAL
2009年
6期
34~37
,共null页
人口城市化 济南市 预测 Logiscit模型
人口城市化 濟南市 預測 Logiscit模型
인구성시화 제남시 예측 Logiscit모형
population urbanization; Jinan; prediction; logistic model
人口城市化趋势的预测，对于一个地区的发展具有十分重要的指导意义，而Logistic模型也是在人口城市化水平预测中最常用的模型。本文将Logistic模型进行修正并用以预测了济南市人口城市化水平的趋势，并根据预测结果对济南市人口城市化水平进行阶段性分析和影响因素分析。分析结果表明，济南市人口城市化发展速度较高，主要与农村劳动力的流动、农业生产率的提高、经济因素等有关。
人口城市化趨勢的預測，對于一箇地區的髮展具有十分重要的指導意義，而Logistic模型也是在人口城市化水平預測中最常用的模型。本文將Logistic模型進行脩正併用以預測瞭濟南市人口城市化水平的趨勢，併根據預測結果對濟南市人口城市化水平進行階段性分析和影響因素分析。分析結果錶明，濟南市人口城市化髮展速度較高，主要與農村勞動力的流動、農業生產率的提高、經濟因素等有關。
인구성시화추세적예측，대우일개지구적발전구유십분중요적지도의의，이Logistic모형야시재인구성시화수평예측중최상용적모형。본문장Logistic모형진행수정병용이예측료제남시인구성시화수평적추세，병근거예측결과대제남시인구성시화수평진행계단성분석화영향인소분석。분석결과표명，제남시인구성시화발전속도교고，주요여농촌노동력적류동、농업생산솔적제고、경제인소등유관。
The prediction of the population urbanization tendency played a very important role for the development of a region. And the Logistic is the most commonly used model in the forecast of the population urbanization level. This article,firstly, simply elaborates the current research and the development survey. And carry out periodic analysis on the population urbanization level and the factor of Jinan, according to the final prediction result. The analysis result indicated that the population urbanization level of Jinan basically conforms to the general rule of the development process of the population urbanization,and develops comparatively rapidly,but compared with developed countries in the west, It still exist a wide gap.
