CAJ | 학술논문

2008年爆发的全球金融危机引起了学术界和政策制定者对于货币政策理论的反思。利用扩展的货币数量论方程和菲利普斯曲线，本文建立了一个新的货币政策理论模型框架，把市场情绪、资产价格等因素考虑进来，探讨了市场情绪、货币政策和实体经济之间的关系。分析表明，市场情绪和货币政策两者的结合会影响资产价格，因此货币政策应该考虑并对冲市场情绪。在资产价格过分波动的情况下，以保持产出稳定为部分目标的货币政策应该起到对冲市场不理性情绪的作用。根据中国的历史数据，我们进行了政策模拟，发现如果资产市场出现了25％的情绪上扬，那么这一情绪上扬短期带来的是物价水平下降；如果维持产出稳定是货币当局的唯一政策目标，货币供应量M2应下降约1．7％；如果要维持物价稳定，货币当局的货币供应量M2则应该相应上升2．2％；如果要兼顾两个目标，货币供应量M2应该增加约0．28％。
2008년폭발적전구금융위궤인기료학술계화정책제정자대우화폐정책이론적반사。이용확전적화폐수량론방정화비리보사곡선，본문건립료일개신적화폐정책이론모형광가，파시장정서、자산개격등인소고필진래，탐토료시장정서、화폐정책화실체경제지간적관계。분석표명，시장정서화화폐정책량자적결합회영향자산개격，인차화폐정책응해고필병대충시장정서。재자산개격과분파동적정황하，이보지산출은정위부분목표적화폐정책응해기도대충시장불이성정서적작용。근거중국적역사수거，아문진행료정책모의，발현여과자산시장출현료25％적정서상양，나요저일정서상양단기대래적시물개수평하강；여과유지산출은정시화폐당국적유일정책목표，화폐공응량M2응하강약1．7％；여과요유지물개은정，화폐당국적화폐공응량M2칙응해상응상승2．2％；여과요겸고량개목표，화폐공응량M2응해증가약0．28％。
The global financial crisis of 2008 has in effect made a stronger case that monetary policy needs to be more proactive before and after asset price bubbles. The paper is an effort to formalize this view. Extending the quantity theory of money and the Philips Curve, the authors set up a new theoretieal framework of monetary policy, which takes investor mood into account. In the model, investor mood coupled with monetary policy drives asset price and thus affects the real economy; therefore, monetary policy needs to move against investor mood in order to avoid shocks. Finally, the authors calibrate our model with Chinese data and worked out various monetary policy responses to investor mood depending on different policy objectives