CAJ | 학술논문

在明确我国经常项目结构特征以及FDI对经常项目收支影响途径的基础上,就我国1982—2006年FDI对贸易收支和经常项目收支的影响进行的实证分析表明,FDI是经常项目收支波动的重要影响因素,能够解释经常项目收支波动的14%左右。同时,FDI对经常项目收支的影响是双重的：一方面,通过推动加工贸易等途径促进我国贸易顺差,从而增加经常项目收支盈余;另一方面,FDI的利润汇回使投资收益账户持续逆差,从而部分抵消了经常项目收支盈余。因此,在调整＂双顺差＂国际收支结构时,应充分考虑两个项目的内在关联,统筹考虑外资政策和外贸政策,从而保证经济发展的健康稳定和持续增长。
재명학아국경상항목결구특정이급FDI대경상항목수지영향도경적기출상,취아국1982—2006년FDI대무역수지화경상항목수지적영향진행적실증분석표명,FDI시경상항목수지파동적중요영향인소,능구해석경상항목수지파동적14%좌우。동시,FDI대경상항목수지적영향시쌍중적：일방면,통과추동가공무역등도경촉진아국무역순차,종이증가경상항목수지영여;령일방면,FDI적리윤회회사투자수익장호지속역차,종이부분저소료경상항목수지영여。인차,재조정＂쌍순차＂국제수지결구시,응충분고필량개항목적내재관련,통주고필외자정책화외무정책,종이보증경제발전적건강은정화지속증장。
By examining the characteristics of China＇s current account structure and the channels that FDI may influence it,this paper presents a rigorous analysis of the impact of FDI on the changes of China＇s current account balance in the balance of payments.The results of variance decomposition analysis reveal that FDI is a significant contributing factor to the current account balance,which,from 1982 to 2006,constituted a fluctuation of approximately fourteen percent.In addition,FDI has conflicting influences on the current account balance.On one hand,FDI contributes to China＇s trade surplus by driving growth in manufacturing and related sectors,constituting an increase in current account balance and hence the balance of payments.On the other hand,remitted interests from FDI consequently result in continued deficits to investment income,which will partially offset the positive effects of trade balance at the same time.Hence,both aspects must be taken into consideration when making adjustments to the China＇s international balance of payments featuring the Twin Surpluses（surpluses in both current account and capital account）.Only through a holistic assessment of the interaction between two accounts and the interaction between foreign investment policy and foreign trade policy can the purpose of sustainable growth of economy be achieved.