预测
預測
예측
Forecasting
2009年
4期
71~75
,共null页
房地产 泡沫 实证
房地產 泡沫 實證
방지산 포말 실증
the real estate; bubble; empirical research
本文选用房价收入比、房价与CPI的同步率、房价与租金的同步率、房屋销售额增长与社会商品零售总额增长的同步率、房地产投资强度、土地价格增长率六项指标,对全国、安徽省、合肥市＂房地产泡沫＂状况进行比较分析,得出安徽省、合肥市2000~2007年房地产泡沫小于全国平均水平的结论。采用边际收益法对全国、安徽省及合肥市房地产泡沫程度分年度予以测度,对2000~2007年房地产泡沫产生的轨迹与区间进行了描述,结果进一步验证了这一结论。
本文選用房價收入比、房價與CPI的同步率、房價與租金的同步率、房屋銷售額增長與社會商品零售總額增長的同步率、房地產投資彊度、土地價格增長率六項指標,對全國、安徽省、閤肥市＂房地產泡沫＂狀況進行比較分析,得齣安徽省、閤肥市2000~2007年房地產泡沫小于全國平均水平的結論。採用邊際收益法對全國、安徽省及閤肥市房地產泡沫程度分年度予以測度,對2000~2007年房地產泡沫產生的軌跡與區間進行瞭描述,結果進一步驗證瞭這一結論。
본문선용방개수입비、방개여CPI적동보솔、방개여조금적동보솔、방옥소수액증장여사회상품령수총액증장적동보솔、방지산투자강도、토지개격증장솔륙항지표,대전국、안휘성、합비시＂방지산포말＂상황진행비교분석,득출안휘성、합비시2000~2007년방지산포말소우전국평균수평적결론。채용변제수익법대전국、안휘성급합비시방지산포말정도분년도여이측도,대2000~2007년방지산포말산생적궤적여구간진행료묘술,결과진일보험증료저일결론。
A comparison analysis was made to evaluate real estate bubbles between bulk China, Anhui province and Hefei city in 2000 -2007. Six indicators were selected in doing so, including the housing price-income ratio,the synchronization rate of house price and CPI, the synchronization rate of house price and rent, the synchronization rate of house sales volume growth and the total volume of retail sales of social commodity growth, the strength of real estate investment, and the growth rate of land price. The results suggest that average levels of the real estate bubbles for Anhui and Hefei are lower than those for bulk China in this period. This suggestion is testified by both paths and blocks describing the real estate bubbles in 2000 - 2007 based on the marginal revenue analysis method to evaluate the degrees of the real estate bubble in China, Anhui and Hefei in different years.
