武汉大学学报：哲学社会科学版
武漢大學學報：哲學社會科學版
무한대학학보：철학사회과학판
Wuhan University Journal (Philosophy & Social Sciences)
2009年
4期
452~456
,共null页
行业金融风险 宏观金融工程 系统工程
行業金融風險 宏觀金融工程 繫統工程
행업금융풍험 굉관금융공정 계통공정
finaneial risk of the industry; macro financial engineering; system engineering
目前，中国通信设备制造业金融风险持续加剧，违约概率上升了2个数量级，直到2008年11月中国政府推出了4万亿元的经济刺激计划才起到了止跌的效果。在金融危机对该行业的风险传播路径上，最主要的风险是欧美实体经济不景气，最直接的风险是运营商需求下降，可从鼓励运营商增加投资、稳定资本市场、鼓舞信心等方面推出政策措施。
目前，中國通信設備製造業金融風險持續加劇，違約概率上升瞭2箇數量級，直到2008年11月中國政府推齣瞭4萬億元的經濟刺激計劃纔起到瞭止跌的效果。在金融危機對該行業的風險傳播路徑上，最主要的風險是歐美實體經濟不景氣，最直接的風險是運營商需求下降，可從鼓勵運營商增加投資、穩定資本市場、鼓舞信心等方麵推齣政策措施。
목전，중국통신설비제조업금융풍험지속가극，위약개솔상승료2개수량급，직도2008년11월중국정부추출료4만억원적경제자격계화재기도료지질적효과。재금융위궤대해행업적풍험전파로경상，최주요적풍험시구미실체경제불경기，최직접적풍험시운영상수구하강，가종고려운영상증가투자、은정자본시장、고무신심등방면추출정책조시。
With the methods of the Macro Financial Engineering and Systematic Engineering, this paper studies the financial risk of telecommunication equipment industry in China from 2007 to 2008. According to the research of this paper, risk of this industry has been exacerbating until Chinese government publicized the ＂4 trillion economic stimulation plan＂ in November 2008. In the contagion approach of the global financial risk, the most important factor is the depression of the developed countries, and the main direct factor is operators cut down their investments in this industry. It is suggested that some policies, such as encouraging operators to increase their investments and stabilizing the capital market, could be taken.
