财贸研究
財貿研究
재무연구
Finance and Trade Research
2009年
4期
85~90
,共null页
外部需求冲击 投资波动 传导路径 实证检验
外部需求遲擊 投資波動 傳導路徑 實證檢驗
외부수구충격 투자파동 전도로경 실증검험
external demand shocks; investments fluctuation; transmission path; empirical test
随着中国参与国际市场分工程度的加深,外部需求冲击与本国经济波动的关联已非净出口所能涵盖,投资已成为净出口之外传导外部需求冲击的重要路径。从因应外部需求冲击的角度对1997年以来中国投资波动进行结构分析,运用OLS回归与ARMA组合模型和Granger因果检验识别外部需求冲击传导的投资路径。结果表明,总投资中的出口引致性投资对于外部需求冲击的反应是敏感的,外部需求与政府预算内投资、外商直接投资以及自筹资金投资之间存在着＂冲击—传导＂关联。
隨著中國參與國際市場分工程度的加深,外部需求遲擊與本國經濟波動的關聯已非淨齣口所能涵蓋,投資已成為淨齣口之外傳導外部需求遲擊的重要路徑。從因應外部需求遲擊的角度對1997年以來中國投資波動進行結構分析,運用OLS迴歸與ARMA組閤模型和Granger因果檢驗識彆外部需求遲擊傳導的投資路徑。結果錶明,總投資中的齣口引緻性投資對于外部需求遲擊的反應是敏感的,外部需求與政府預算內投資、外商直接投資以及自籌資金投資之間存在著＂遲擊—傳導＂關聯。
수착중국삼여국제시장분공정도적가심,외부수구충격여본국경제파동적관련이비정출구소능함개,투자이성위정출구지외전도외부수구충격적중요로경。종인응외부수구충격적각도대1997년이래중국투자파동진행결구분석,운용OLS회귀여ARMA조합모형화Granger인과검험식별외부수구충격전도적투자로경。결과표명,총투자중적출구인치성투자대우외부수구충격적반응시민감적,외부수구여정부예산내투자、외상직접투자이급자주자금투자지간존재착＂충격—전도＂관련。
With China＇s participation in the international market division, net exportation can＇t reflect the connection between external demand shocks and internal economy fluctuation fully. Investments become a significant path to transmit the eternal demand shocks besides net exportation. From the angle of investments fluctuation in accordance to the exterior demand change, this paper carries on structural analysis of investments fluctuation since 1997. Through the OLS regression and the ARMA combination model, with the Granger causality test, the external demand shocks＇ transmission path of investments is identified. The result indicates that of total investments brought by exportation response to the external demand shocks ＇sensitively. There exist the relations of ＂shocks -transmission＂ between the external demand and government budget investments, the foreign direct investments as well as self-providing funds investments.
