CAJ | 학술논문

首先用改进了的差额法估算35个发展中国家1984—2004年间资本外逃的规模。在此基础上，针对现有研究在资本外逃惯性和面板数据的异质性方面的忽略以及在处理滞后因变量作为解释变量方面的局限性，引入准方差法并结合动态模型和固定效应模型分析资本外逃的决定因素，并通过对分期样本和亚洲及拉美国家的回归分析进行测试。结果发现，经济危机、金融深化和资本流入是资本外逃的决定因素。前两个因素的决定作用是对现有文献的补充。
수선용개진료적차액법고산35개발전중국가1984—2004년간자본외도적규모。재차기출상，침대현유연구재자본외도관성화면판수거적이질성방면적홀략이급재처리체후인변량작위해석변량방면적국한성，인입준방차법병결합동태모형화고정효응모형분석자본외도적결정인소，병통과대분기양본화아주급랍미국가적회귀분석진행측시。결과발현，경제위궤、금융심화화자본류입시자본외도적결정인소。전량개인소적결정작용시대현유문헌적보충。
Capital flight for 35 developing countries over a time horizon of 21 years is estimated using a refined residual measure. In view of the limitations of existing studies, the paper employs dynamic models and fixed effects models in the empirical analysis of the determinants of international capital flow, with an aim to address the problems of autocorrelation and heterogeneity associated respectively with the inertia of capital flows and country specific effects. An innovation of the thesis is the utilization of the quasi-differencing technique in conjunction with dynamic and fixed effects models. Our econometric results indicate that risk factors, financial sector development and for- eign exchange inflows play a dominant role in facilitating capital flight. Robustness tests are conducted by running regressions on sub-period samples as well as on two subsets of countries, namely the Latin American and Asian countries respectively.