CAJ | 학술논문

基于时间序列分析方法，以1981年～2004年贫困发生率、基尼系数和农村人均纯收入等相关指标，从时序维度考察贫困人口的变动与经济增长和收入不平等的长期均衡关系和相互作用机制。Johansen协整检验结果表明，3个变量之间存在着一定的长期协整性；格兰杰因果检验发现，农村人均纯收入和基尼系数能够预测贫困发生率的变化，反之不能成立；误差修正模型显示，贫困发生率对农村人均纯收入的弹性系数为正，对基尼系数的弹性系数为负，且前者大于后者。由此认为，农村人均纯收入的提高是促进贫困减少的影响因素，收入不平等在一定程度上阻碍了贫困减少，经济增长对贫困减少的积极效应大于收入不平等对贫困减少的消极效应。因此，在目前中国经济增长时期，确保农民收入大幅度增加、努力缓解收入差距是贫困减少的有效途径。
기우시간서렬분석방법，이1981년～2004년빈곤발생솔、기니계수화농촌인균순수입등상관지표，종시서유도고찰빈곤인구적변동여경제증장화수입불평등적장기균형관계화상호작용궤제。Johansen협정검험결과표명，3개변량지간존재착일정적장기협정성；격란걸인과검험발현，농촌인균순수입화기니계수능구예측빈곤발생솔적변화，반지불능성립；오차수정모형현시，빈곤발생솔대농촌인균순수입적탄성계수위정，대기니계수적탄성계수위부，차전자대우후자。유차인위，농촌인균순수입적제고시촉진빈곤감소적영향인소，수입불평등재일정정도상조애료빈곤감소，경제증장대빈곤감소적적겁효응대우수입불평등대빈곤감소적소겁효응。인차，재목전중국경제증장시기，학보농민수입대폭도증가、노력완해수입차거시빈곤감소적유효도경。
Based on the time series analysis, the paper aims at investigating the relationship among economic growth, income inequality and poverty reduction by using variables of the incidence of poverty lnPt, rural per capita net income lnINt and Gini coefficient lnGt. Johansen cointegration test shows that the variables have a long-term cointegration relationship. We also take the Granger causality test and find that lnINt and lnGt is the Granger causality of lnPt, but it is not true vice versa. At last, we make error correction model which shows that the elastic coefficient of lnPt to InINt is positive, the elastic coefficient of lnPt to lnGt is negative, and the former is larger than the latter. It means that the increase of the rural household per capita income is the important element for poverty reduction, the highly income inequality has bad effect on the poverty reduction, while the positive effect of economic growth to poverty reduction is larger than the negative effect of the highly income inequality to poverty reduction. Consequently, China＇s development in the future should improve the rural household per capita income, and strive to alleviate the income gap.