CAJ | 학술논문

高科技项目与普通项目不同，它的风险比较大，短期收益往往不尽如人意。如果采取传统的评价方法，可能会发现项目是没有投资价值的。但是这类项目一般都包含一种将来继续投资的权力、放弃的权力或者对其他领域能够产生正面的影响。基于实物期权的科技项目投资评价框架，为高科技项目评价提供了一种新思路、一种更为合理的分阶段投资决策方法。这种框架对高科技项目实现了项目立项前的预测、项目进行中的考核对照以及最优投资决策的选取、项目结束后的总体评价和未来潜在价值的评判。利用实物期权方法可以改善投资效率，提高项目管理水平，在减少风险的同时，增加高科技项目的战略价值。
고과기항목여보통항목불동，타적풍험비교대，단기수익왕왕불진여인의。여과채취전통적평개방법，가능회발현항목시몰유투자개치적。단시저류항목일반도포함일충장래계속투자적권력、방기적권력혹자대기타영역능구산생정면적영향。기우실물기권적과기항목투자평개광가，위고과기항목평개제공료일충신사로、일충경위합리적분계단투자결책방법。저충광가대고과기항목실현료항목립항전적예측、항목진행중적고핵대조이급최우투자결책적선취、항목결속후적총체평개화미래잠재개치적평판。이용실물기권방법가이개선투자효솔，제고항목관리수평，재감소풍험적동시，증가고과기항목적전략개치。
Different from general projects, high-tech projects have higher risk and less satisfactory short-term revenues. They may be regarded as no value in investment if evaluated by traditional assessment methods. However, these projects generally contain the right for continuous investment and waiver or they may have positive impact on other domains. Based on real options, the assessment frame- work for the investment in scientific and technological projects renders a new thought and a more reasonable method of investment deci- sion-making by stages for high-tech projects. This kind of framework can realize the prediction before the project is initiated, the assess- ment comparison and the selection of optimal investment decision while the project is being carried on, and the overall assessment and fu- ture potential value judgment after the project is finished. Real option method can improve the investment efficiency, advance the level of project management and increases the strategic value of high-tech projects while it reduces the risks.