CAJ | 학술논문

对中国外汇市场压力（ExchangeMarketPressure，EMP）、国内货币供给、利率、经济增长之间的相互关系进行分析表明：为应对外汇占款增加而导致的通货膨胀压力，货币当局的货币政策是紧缩性的。但是，紧缩性的货币政策又会引起EMP增大。因此，紧缩的货币政策对通货膨胀的抑制效果只能是短期性的。此外，货币供给对经济增长有显著影响，利率变化对经济增长及资金流动的信号作用已经比较明显。在美国金融危机的背景下，国内通货膨胀压力的基本消除为解决中国长期以来面临的货币政策困境提供了契机。
대중국외회시장압력（ExchangeMarketPressure，EMP）、국내화폐공급、리솔、경제증장지간적상호관계진행분석표명：위응대외회점관증가이도치적통화팽창압력，화폐당국적화폐정책시긴축성적。단시，긴축성적화폐정책우회인기EMP증대。인차，긴축적화폐정책대통화팽창적억제효과지능시단기성적。차외，화폐공급대경제증장유현저영향，리솔변화대경제증장급자금류동적신호작용이경비교명현。재미국금융위궤적배경하，국내통화팽창압력적기본소제위해결중국장기이래면림적화폐정책곤경제공료계궤。
This paper follows the tradition of investigating the interactions between Chinese exchange market pressure （EMP）, domestic supply of money, interest rate and output growth. In response to the inflation caused by the increased international reserves, the monetary authority tightened the monetary policies. However, the tight monetary policies would cause additional EMP. Therefore, the effects of the tight monetary policies can survive only within a short-tenn. In addition, the supply of money does affect the economy, and the interest rate plays an important role in the economic growth and capital flows. Under the background of American financial crisis, the relief of inflation pressure gives an opportunity to resolve the dilemma of China＇ s monetary policy.