财经论丛
財經論叢
재경론총
Collected Essays On Finance and Economics
2009年
5期
19~25
,共null页
减税 扩大政府支出 经济增长 扩大内需 结构向量自回归模型
減稅 擴大政府支齣 經濟增長 擴大內需 結構嚮量自迴歸模型
감세 확대정부지출 경제증장 확대내수 결구향량자회귀모형
tax cuts; government spending; expanding domestic demand; SVAR model
本文运用SVAR模型考察了改革开放30年来，税收与政府支出对经济增长、居民消费和企业投资的影响关系。结果显示，在弹性关系层面无法确定政府支出、税收和经济增长之间是否存在协整关系。但在增长率层面政府支出对于经济增长和扩大内需均有促进作用，而税收的作用则相反。扩大政府支出对于促进经济增长和扩大居民消费而言，比减税的影响效率与效力都强，但减税对企业投资的促进效率与效力则优于扩大政府支出所产生的影响。
本文運用SVAR模型攷察瞭改革開放30年來，稅收與政府支齣對經濟增長、居民消費和企業投資的影響關繫。結果顯示，在彈性關繫層麵無法確定政府支齣、稅收和經濟增長之間是否存在協整關繫。但在增長率層麵政府支齣對于經濟增長和擴大內需均有促進作用，而稅收的作用則相反。擴大政府支齣對于促進經濟增長和擴大居民消費而言，比減稅的影響效率與效力都彊，但減稅對企業投資的促進效率與效力則優于擴大政府支齣所產生的影響。
본문운용SVAR모형고찰료개혁개방30년래，세수여정부지출대경제증장、거민소비화기업투자적영향관계。결과현시，재탄성관계층면무법학정정부지출、세수화경제증장지간시부존재협정관계。단재증장솔층면정부지출대우경제증장화확대내수균유촉진작용，이세수적작용칙상반。확대정부지출대우촉진경제증장화확대거민소비이언，비감세적영향효솔여효력도강，단감세대기업투자적촉진효솔여효력칙우우확대정부지출소산생적영향。
The paper uses SVAR model to research the impact of the tax cuts and government spending on economic growth, household consumption and business investment since China＇s reform and opening up. From the investigating result, it is uncertain if there was a cointegration relationship among the government expense, taxes and economic growth, but government spending promotes the economic growth and civil demands, the role of tax was vice versa; For promoting economic growth and the expansion of household consumption, government expense is more effectiveness and et~ciency than tax cuts. However, tax cuts＇ effectiveness and efficiency are superior to the expansion of government expense on promoting the business investment.
