现代情报
現代情報
현대정보
Journal of Modern Information
2009年
9期
7~10
,共null页
高校图书馆 图书借阅流量 混沌预测 Lyapunov指数
高校圖書館 圖書藉閱流量 混沌預測 Lyapunov指數
고교도서관 도서차열류량 혼돈예측 Lyapunov지수
university library; library borrow traffic; chaotic forecasting; lyapunov exponent
运用混沌理论对高校图书馆图书借阅流量数据时间序列进行相空间重构，分析得出高校图书馆图书借阅行为的演化具有明显的混沌特征。针对图书借阅流量在不同时间粒度各时期中的波动特点，构建了基于最大Lyapunov指数的高校图书馆图书借阅流量混沌预测模型。通过对中国矿业大学图书馆图书借阅流量的验证表明，混沌预测模型的预测结果较为合理。
運用混沌理論對高校圖書館圖書藉閱流量數據時間序列進行相空間重構，分析得齣高校圖書館圖書藉閱行為的縯化具有明顯的混沌特徵。針對圖書藉閱流量在不同時間粒度各時期中的波動特點，構建瞭基于最大Lyapunov指數的高校圖書館圖書藉閱流量混沌預測模型。通過對中國礦業大學圖書館圖書藉閱流量的驗證錶明，混沌預測模型的預測結果較為閤理。
운용혼돈이론대고교도서관도서차열류량수거시간서렬진행상공간중구，분석득출고교도서관도서차열행위적연화구유명현적혼돈특정。침대도서차열류량재불동시간립도각시기중적파동특점，구건료기우최대Lyapunov지수적고교도서관도서차열류량혼돈예측모형。통과대중국광업대학도서관도서차열류량적험증표명，혼돈예측모형적예측결과교위합리。
Based on the chaos theory, the phase space of the university library borrow traffic time series data was restructured. The conclusion that university library borrow traffic time series data has chaotic property was deduced. According to the annual fluctuation characteristic of readers＇ borrow demand, a forecasting model on the time series with chaotic characteristics was performed . Test results for using this algorithm to forecast the short term readers＇ borrow demand of the china university of mining and technology of library were reported, and showed that the proposed algorithm could attain reasonable performance.
