CAJ | 학술논문

农村用水量预测是农村饮水工程规划的基础。而农村用水历史数据缺乏，人口流动大，农户饲养畜禽的种类和数量年际变化大等因素为建立农村用水量预测模型带来了困难。通过问卷调查获得第一手资料，根据生活用水量、畜禽饲养用水量、企业用水量、管网漏失和未预见水量4项指标建立农村用水量预测综合模型，并在软件ARCGIS9．0中实现此模型，分析了镇平县农村需水量和缺水严重程度的空间差异及其原因。研究发现，镇平县农村需水量南多北少，中南部缺水比较严重.最后，根据镇平县农村缺水严重程度确定了23个农村重点饮水工程规划村，从而为农村饮水工程规划提供了较为准确的空间决策支持。
농촌용수량예측시농촌음수공정규화적기출。이농촌용수역사수거결핍，인구류동대，농호사양축금적충류화수량년제변화대등인소위건립농촌용수량예측모형대래료곤난。통과문권조사획득제일수자료，근거생활용수량、축금사양용수량、기업용수량、관망루실화미예견수량4항지표건립농촌용수량예측종합모형，병재연건ARCGIS9．0중실현차모형，분석료진평현농촌수수량화결수엄중정도적공간차이급기원인。연구발현，진평현농촌수수량남다북소，중남부결수비교엄중.최후，근거진평현농촌결수엄중정도학정료23개농촌중점음수공정규화촌，종이위농촌음수공정규화제공료교위준학적공간결책지지。
The prediction of water consumption is fundamental for drinking water planning in rural areas. However, due to the lack of historical consumption data, mass work force movement and yearly variation of live stock farming in rural China, it is difficult to predict the volume of water consumption using existing models. Conse- quently, the authors introduce a practical prediction model based on the questionnaire investigation of the water for living, the water for livestock, the water for enterprise and the leak of pipe network and unpredictable water. Using ArcGIS 9.0, the model is implemented, and the spatial variations and their reasons of village-level predictive water consumptions and of the supply gaps in Zhenping County are presented. It is found that the southern villages consume more water than the northern and the central-southern region has wide supply gaps. Based on the findings, 23 villages are identified having top priority in regional drinking water planning. The authors argue that GIS technology and the practical prediction model introduced in this paper have potentials in rural drinking water planning.