系统工程理论与实践
繫統工程理論與實踐
계통공정이론여실천
Systems Engineering—Theory & Practice
2009年
9期
179~185
,共null页
单因子系统云灰色模型 加权马尔可夫链 干旱受灾面积 预测
單因子繫統雲灰色模型 加權馬爾可伕鏈 榦旱受災麵積 預測
단인자계통운회색모형 가권마이가부련 간한수재면적 예측
SCGM（1,1）c model; weighted Markov chain; drought crop area; predict
基于灰色系统理论和马尔可夫链原理，应用系统云灰色模型拟合时序数据的总体趋势，所得拟合精度指标是随机波动的，而马尔科夫链原理适合处理波动性大的系统过程，选用能更好解决随机波动性的加权马尔可夫链预测方法，提出一种用于农作物干旱受灾面积预测的加权马尔可夫SCGM（1，1）c模型，适用时间短、数据量少且随机波动大的动态过程预测．以我国农作物干旱受灾面积预测为例，表明加权马尔可夫SCCM（1，1）c模型对于农业旱灾预测具有较高的精度．
基于灰色繫統理論和馬爾可伕鏈原理，應用繫統雲灰色模型擬閤時序數據的總體趨勢，所得擬閤精度指標是隨機波動的，而馬爾科伕鏈原理適閤處理波動性大的繫統過程，選用能更好解決隨機波動性的加權馬爾可伕鏈預測方法，提齣一種用于農作物榦旱受災麵積預測的加權馬爾可伕SCGM（1，1）c模型，適用時間短、數據量少且隨機波動大的動態過程預測．以我國農作物榦旱受災麵積預測為例，錶明加權馬爾可伕SCCM（1，1）c模型對于農業旱災預測具有較高的精度．
기우회색계통이론화마이가부련원리，응용계통운회색모형의합시서수거적총체추세，소득의합정도지표시수궤파동적，이마이과부련원리괄합처리파동성대적계통과정，선용능경호해결수궤파동성적가권마이가부련예측방법，제출일충용우농작물간한수재면적예측적가권마이가부SCGM（1，1）c모형，괄용시간단、수거량소차수궤파동대적동태과정예측．이아국농작물간한수재면적예측위례，표명가권마이가부SCCM（1，1）c모형대우농업한재예측구유교고적정도．
The prediction of drought crop area is the basis of agricultural development in our country. According to grey system theory and Markov chain principle, applying a single gene system cloud grey SCGM（1,1）c model to fit the development tendency of the few time series, its error index is stochastic fluctuate. Markov chain method is suitable for forecasting stochastic fluctuating dynamic process, selecting weight Markov chain to predict the error index. Combining tow the advantages of two models, found a weighted SCGM（1,1）c model for drought crop area prediction, the new model is suitable for forecasting such kinds of system with short time, few data and stochastic fluctuating dynamic process. The example shows that the weighted SCGM（1,1）c model can have high prediction precision for drought crop area.
