CAJ | 학술논문

在充分搜集河北省退耕还林前后粮食生产和农民人均纯收入的动态变化有关情况的基础上，应用VARMA预测模型，预测了2006年到2015年河北省粮食生产情况，并用2006年和2007年的各项实际数据与预测数据进行对比核对。预测结果表明，各项数据指标的实际检验误差都在误差范围之内，说明所建立的预测模型具有较高的精确度，为今后制定和完善退耕还林后续政策提供了可靠依据。
재충분수집하북성퇴경환림전후양식생산화농민인균순수입적동태변화유관정황적기출상，응용VARMA예측모형，예측료2006년도2015년하북성양식생산정황，병용2006년화2007년적각항실제수거여예측수거진행대비핵대。예측결과표명，각항수거지표적실제검험오차도재오차범위지내，설명소건립적예측모형구유교고적정학도，위금후제정화완선퇴경환림후속정책제공료가고의거。
How effecting food security has been the focus of social concern,by collecting food production and per capita net income of farmers before and after returning farmland to forests of the dynamic changes, a model VARMA for predicting grain production of 2006 to 2015 was built,and used in 2006 and 2007 of the actual data to compare with the predicted data for check.Forecast results show that the data indicator of the actual test error is in the error range,and illustrate that the model has more accuracy.The study provides a reliable basis for the future to make and perfect the follow-up policy of returning farmland to forest,and has a certain practical significance for the guidance of the current results of the returning farmland to forest work.