CAJ | 학술논문

主要对当今国内、外问题博彩中的认知偏差研究进行综述，并结合我国体育彩票消费中彩民的非理性行为的实际情况，对引起问题博彩的控制幻觉、概率误差、过度自信、差点赢和沉没成本谬误等认知偏差进行了分析与探讨。研究认为，在体育彩票消费中，问题博彩者存在明显的认知偏差现象，控制幻觉如“赌徒谬论”和“冷热号码”等是问题博彩者存在的普遍现象；对中奖概率的误解是影响彩民参与博彩的核心因素；沉没成本谬误、过度自信会导致彩民过度投注；中奖联想和“差点赢”心理是彩民持续参与博彩的原因之一。在此基础上，提出了未来研究的可能发展方向。
주요대당금국내、외문제박채중적인지편차연구진행종술，병결합아국체육채표소비중채민적비이성행위적실제정황，대인기문제박채적공제환각、개솔오차、과도자신、차점영화침몰성본류오등인지편차진행료분석여탐토。연구인위，재체육채표소비중，문제박채자존재명현적인지편차현상，공제환각여“도도류론”화“랭열호마”등시문제박채자존재적보편현상；대중장개솔적오해시영향채민삼여박채적핵심인소；침몰성본류오、과도자신회도치채민과도투주；중장련상화“차점영”심리시채민지속삼여박채적원인지일。재차기출상，제출료미래연구적가능발전방향。
In this paper, this paper reviewed the cognition bias of the problem gambling at home and abroad, and combined China＇s practical situation of the irrational behavior in the consumption of the sports lottery, and carried out a detailed analysis and discussion concerning at the illusion of control, the misunderstanding probabilities, the over confidence, the near miss, and the sunk cost fallacy cognitive biases which caused the problem gambling. We drew such conclusions：there exists obvious phenomenon of the cognition bias in the consumption of the sports lottery, and the illusion of control, such as the phenomenon of hot and cold numbers, is the universal phenomenon among the lottery players, the misunderstanding probability is the core element which affects the participation in the sports lottery, the sunk cost fallacy and the over confidence can lead to over-betting, the wining association and the near miss both are the one of the reasons why the players persistently participate in the sports lottery. Based on it, we proposed the direction of the intending research, with a view to provide reference in carrying out relevant research in China.