CAJ | 학술논문

在Carlino-Mills区域增长模型的基础上,通过引入农地非农化变量,应用两阶段最小二乘法（TSLS）和普通最小二乘法（OLS）,利用中国232个地级及以上城市1999年和2005年两个时间段的截面数据,从一个整体的视角分析了人口、就业与土地非农化的关系。分析结果表明：①城市人口与非农就业相互影响,非农就业对城市人口的影响要大于城市人口对非农就业的影响;城市人口与第二产业就业呈正相关关系,而与第三产业就业呈负相关关系;②城市人口和非农就业对农地非农化有显著的正的影响,城市人口对农地非农化的影响要大于非农就业对农地非农化的影响;农地非农化与第二产业就业正相关,与第三产就业负相关;③就业非农化高的地区,农地非农化将有所减缓,人口城市化高的区域,农地非农化则加剧。根据上述研究结果,本文提出了相应的政策建议。
재Carlino-Mills구역증장모형적기출상,통과인입농지비농화변량,응용량계단최소이승법（TSLS）화보통최소이승법（OLS）,이용중국232개지급급이상성시1999년화2005년량개시간단적절면수거,종일개정체적시각분석료인구、취업여토지비농화적관계。분석결과표명：①성시인구여비농취업상호영향,비농취업대성시인구적영향요대우성시인구대비농취업적영향;성시인구여제이산업취업정정상관관계,이여제삼산업취업정부상관관계;②성시인구화비농취업대농지비농화유현저적정적영향,성시인구대농지비농화적영향요대우비농취업대농지비농화적영향;농지비농화여제이산업취업정상관,여제삼산취업부상관;③취업비농화고적지구,농지비농화장유소감완,인구성시화고적구역,농지비농화칙가극。근거상술연구결과,본문제출료상응적정책건의。
There are close interrelationships between non-agricultural population,jobs and land.Most researches so far have neglected those interrelationships and failed to analyze them in an integrated framework.We establish such a framework taking account of rural urban land conversion into Carlino-Mills s model on regional growth,employ two-stage-least-square（TSLS）and ordinaryleast-square（OLS） to estimate the interrelationships and test the model using recent data for district（grade） cities in China（from 1999 and 2005）. Results indicate that①urbanpopulation is affected by non-agricultural jobs and non-agricultural jobs are affected by urban population and both are positive and significant, but the impacts of non-agricultural jobs on urban population is greater than that of the latter on the former. Further analyses find there is a positive correlation between urban population and the jobs from the secondary industry and the interrelationships between urban population and the jobs from the tertiary industry are negative. ②Rural urban land conversion is affected by urban population and non-agricultural jobs, and it is positive and significant, but the impacts of urban population on rural urban land conversion is greater than that of the non-agricultural jobs on rural urban land conversion. Rural urban land conversion is affected by the jobs from the secondary industry and it is positive, but the interaction between rural urban land conversion and the jobs from the tertiary industry is negative, which indicates the jobs from the secondary industry lead to more rural urban land conversion than the jobs from the tertiary industry do. ③Rural urban land conversion will slow down in urban with high density of non-agricultural jobs, while rural urban land conversion will exacerbate in urban with high density of urban population. Finatly, some valuable prepositions are presented.