CAJ | 학술논문

文章从来源于入世后外向型劳动力密集型产业繁荣的中国式“荷兰病”理论出发，对中国式“荷兰病”通过“支出效应”、“资源转移效应”和“人民币汇率效应”等渠道影响中国城乡就业的情况进行了实证研究。在“中国式荷兰病”的影响下，我国就业城镇化趋势明显，传统就业主渠道丧失．特别是就业增长越来越严重地依赖于外向型劳动力密集型产业的持续繁荣以及大规模从事加工贸易的东部沿海地区。文章建议规范和鼓励城镇服务业发展、支持企业产品与产业结构调整、扩大人民币汇率浮动区间以及加大中央政府财政反哺农业和中西部地区等措施来确保中国经济与城乡就业的可持续发展。
문장종래원우입세후외향형노동력밀집형산업번영적중국식“하란병”이론출발，대중국식“하란병”통과“지출효응”、“자원전이효응”화“인민폐회솔효응”등거도영향중국성향취업적정황진행료실증연구。재“중국식하란병”적영향하，아국취업성진화추세명현，전통취업주거도상실．특별시취업증장월래월엄중지의뢰우외향형노동력밀집형산업적지속번영이급대규모종사가공무역적동부연해지구。문장건의규범화고려성진복무업발전、지지기업산품여산업결구조정、확대인민폐회솔부동구간이급가대중앙정부재정반포농업화중서부지구등조시래학보중국경제여성향취업적가지속발전。
Based on Corden and Neary＇s analytic framework, this paper does comprehensive empirical studies on the impact of China＇s “Dutch Disease” on China urban and rural employment through channels of “spending effect”, “resource movement effect” and “RMB exchange rate ef- fect”. Among its findings are the loss of traditional employment channels, and more important, the high dependence or vulnerability of China increased employment on booming export-oriented labor-intensive industries and on China prospering Eastern and Coastal regions. Finally, to keep China economy and employment on a sustainable track, this paper gives some suggestions as follows： further developing China urban services industries, improving industrial organization and product lines, making RMB exchange rates more flexible, and increasing national fiscal assistance to agriculture and Western regions, etc.