CAJ | 학술논문

本文首先构建了一个FDI影响国内投资的理论模型，说明存在一个最优的FDI规模，此时FDI对国内投资的促进作用最大。然后利用1985-2005年我国省区面板数据进行了实证检验。考虑到投资在不同地区之间的空间相关性，估计方法上采用最新提出的空间GM方法。结果发现：我国确实存在一个最优的FDI规模，约占GDP的6％；我国大部分省区的FDI小于这个最优规模，而FDI超过最优规模的省区主要集中在东部地区：从FDI对国内投资的长期效应来看。东部地区要低于中西部地区。
본문수선구건료일개FDI영향국내투자적이론모형，설명존재일개최우적FDI규모，차시FDI대국내투자적촉진작용최대。연후이용1985-2005년아국성구면판수거진행료실증검험。고필도투자재불동지구지간적공간상관성，고계방법상채용최신제출적공간GM방법。결과발현：아국학실존재일개최우적FDI규모，약점GDP적6％；아국대부분성구적FDI소우저개최우규모，이FDI초과최우규모적성구주요집중재동부지구：종FDI대국내투자적장기효응래간。동부지구요저우중서부지구。
Whether FDI can promote domestic investment is vitally important for FDI policy-making. This paper first constructs a model to investigate how FDI affects domestic investment. An optimal FDI scale is found which generates the most active effects on domestic investment. Then the conclusion is tested empirically using provincial panel data of China. With the consideration of interactions among regions, spatial components are added into empirical equation, which is estimated by GMM method proposed recently. It is found that an optimal scale does exist, which is about 6 percent of GDP. Provinces above the optimal line are mainly located along the east coast, while most of them are below it. And FDI＇s long-run effects on domestic investment are smaller in the east than in the west and the middle.