旅游学刊
旅遊學刊
여유학간
Tourism Tribune
2009年
11期
30~35
,共null页
概率模型 乡村旅游 环城游憩带 决策路径
概率模型 鄉村旅遊 環城遊憩帶 決策路徑
개솔모형 향촌여유 배성유게대 결책로경
probability model; rural tourism; ReBAM ; decisionmaking path
针对乡村旅游开发中出现的“一哄而上”,本研究采用AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process,层次分析法),在EC11.5(Expert Choice11.5)的帮助下构建了环城游憩带乡村旅游开发的影响因子体系和概率计算模型,并与门槛值相结合建立了环城游憩带乡村旅游的开发决策路径,以期将客观的概率模型引入乡村旅游开发决策,从定量角度为乡村旅游的可持续发展提供建议。同时,本研究根据矩阵计算和检验结果,对影响环城游憩带乡村旅游的主要因子和指标进行了分析,初步论证了环城游憩带乡村旅游在实践上的特殊性以及在理论上的典型性。
針對鄉村旅遊開髮中齣現的“一鬨而上”,本研究採用AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process,層次分析法),在EC11.5(Expert Choice11.5)的幫助下構建瞭環城遊憩帶鄉村旅遊開髮的影響因子體繫和概率計算模型,併與門檻值相結閤建立瞭環城遊憩帶鄉村旅遊的開髮決策路徑,以期將客觀的概率模型引入鄉村旅遊開髮決策,從定量角度為鄉村旅遊的可持續髮展提供建議。同時,本研究根據矩陣計算和檢驗結果,對影響環城遊憩帶鄉村旅遊的主要因子和指標進行瞭分析,初步論證瞭環城遊憩帶鄉村旅遊在實踐上的特殊性以及在理論上的典型性。
침대향촌여유개발중출현적“일홍이상”,본연구채용AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process,층차분석법),재EC11.5(Expert Choice11.5)적방조하구건료배성유게대향촌여유개발적영향인자체계화개솔계산모형,병여문함치상결합건립료배성유게대향촌여유적개발결책로경,이기장객관적개솔모형인입향촌여유개발결책,종정량각도위향촌여유적가지속발전제공건의。동시,본연구근거구진계산화검험결과,대영향배성유게대향촌여유적주요인자화지표진행료분석,초보론증료배성유게대향촌여유재실천상적특수성이급재이론상적전형성。
Aiming at the phenomenon of "rushing headlong into mass action" during the development of rural tourism, the paper first constructs influencing factor index system and probability calculation model by adopting AHP (analytic hierarchy process) and EC 11.5 (Expert Choice 11.5) with the combination of threshold value to establish development decision-making path of ReBAM rural tourism. It is expected to introduce the objective probability modal into the development decision-making of rural tourism, which offers suggestions for the sustainable development of rural tourism frora quantitative perspective. Meanwhile, the study, in accordance with matrix calculation and test results, makes an analysis of main factots and indexes that affect ReBAM rural tourism and initially demonstrates its peculiarity in practice and typicality in theory.