系统工程理论与实践
繫統工程理論與實踐
계통공정이론여실천
Systems Engineering—Theory & Practice
2009年
11期
177~182
,共null页
行人违规 跟随群体 蒙特卡罗方法 微观交通仿真
行人違規 跟隨群體 矇特卡囉方法 微觀交通倣真
행인위규 근수군체 몽특잡라방법 미관교통방진
pedestrian violation; colony following; Monte Carlo method; microscopic traffic simulation
人车混行的现象在国内城市中十分普遍,而且在行人红灯期到达的行人往往倾向于违规穿越横道.经过较长时间在西安市实地观测,发现行人红灯期到达的行人选择违规穿越横道的几率随着需要等待绿灯的时间和人群规模的差异而有所不同.当需要等待的时间较长时,行人违规的几率就会变大.同样,当群体中的人数增多时,行人违规的几率也会变大.因此,结合蒙特卡罗仿真方法,提出了一种行人群体闯红灯行为随机决策仿真模型.在不同的流量条件下,对行人违规次数的实测值和仿真模拟值进行具有统计意义的显著性差异分析,验证了模型的有效性.
人車混行的現象在國內城市中十分普遍,而且在行人紅燈期到達的行人往往傾嚮于違規穿越橫道.經過較長時間在西安市實地觀測,髮現行人紅燈期到達的行人選擇違規穿越橫道的幾率隨著需要等待綠燈的時間和人群規模的差異而有所不同.噹需要等待的時間較長時,行人違規的幾率就會變大.同樣,噹群體中的人數增多時,行人違規的幾率也會變大.因此,結閤矇特卡囉倣真方法,提齣瞭一種行人群體闖紅燈行為隨機決策倣真模型.在不同的流量條件下,對行人違規次數的實測值和倣真模擬值進行具有統計意義的顯著性差異分析,驗證瞭模型的有效性.
인차혼행적현상재국내성시중십분보편,이차재행인홍등기도체적행인왕왕경향우위규천월횡도.경과교장시간재서안시실지관측,발현행인홍등기도체적행인선택위규천월횡도적궤솔수착수요등대록등적시간화인군규모적차이이유소불동.당수요등대적시간교장시,행인위규적궤솔취회변대.동양,당군체중적인수증다시,행인위규적궤솔야회변대.인차,결합몽특잡라방진방법,제출료일충행인군체틈홍등행위수궤결책방진모형.재불동적류량조건하,대행인위규차수적실측치화방진모의치진행구유통계의의적현저성차이분석,험증료모형적유효성.
The phenomenon of mixed traffic exists all over the city in China. And pedestrians usually can cross streets successfully during pedestrian non-green phases. Based on the field research in Xi＇an, Shaanxi province, it is found that the proportion between pedestrian signal non-compliance and compliance are not uniform with different scale colony. And the ratio of traffic violator rises with increasing time for waiting the pedestrian＇s green signal. In this paper a simulation model is proposed to estimate the ratio of pedestrian signal noncompliance during non-green phase by Monte Carlo method. Finally, the proposed model has been verified by analyses of significant difference to the values of simulation and the measured value of the pedestrians violating times under different traffic flows.
