CAJ | 학술논문

货币服务指数度量经济中执行交易媒介职能货币的总量。本文构造了我国1997年1季度至2008年4季度的货币服务指数。与已有构造方案相比，我们的方案有三个主要创新。根据构造出来的数据进行的分析表明，我国2004年的经济过热和2007—2008年较高的通货膨胀率都与经济中的货币服务过多直接相关。经验分析表明，预期通货膨胀率确实不是中国货币需求函数的机会成本变量；狭义货币服务指数和狭义简单相加货币总量的表现都不好，但广义货币服务指数的表现要比广义简单相加货币总量好。在样本期内，我国的广义简单相加货币总量的短期需求函数确实是不稳定的，但广义货币服务指数的短期需求函数却是稳定的。这些结论为我国用广义货币服务指数作为货币政策中介目标提供了一定的理论依据。
화폐복무지수도량경제중집행교역매개직능화폐적총량。본문구조료아국1997년1계도지2008년4계도적화폐복무지수。여이유구조방안상비，아문적방안유삼개주요창신。근거구조출래적수거진행적분석표명，아국2004년적경제과열화2007—2008년교고적통화팽창솔도여경제중적화폐복무과다직접상관。경험분석표명，예기통화팽창솔학실불시중국화폐수구함수적궤회성본변량；협의화폐복무지수화협의간단상가화폐총량적표현도불호，단엄의화폐복무지수적표현요비엄의간단상가화폐총량호。재양본기내，아국적엄의간단상가화폐총량적단기수구함수학실시불은정적，단엄의화폐복무지수적단기수구함수각시은정적。저사결론위아국용엄의화폐복무지수작위화폐정책중개목표제공료일정적이론의거。
Monetary Service Index measures the basic role of money as medium of exchange. This paper constructs the Monetary Service Index from spring of 1997 to winter of 2008 for China. Compared with existent constructing plans, there are three innovations in the plan. Based on analysis with constructed data, the authors suggest that both the ＂heated economy＂ during 2004 and the high inflation rate during 2007 and 2008 are directly related to excessive monetary service in China＇s economy. Moreover, empirical analysis also shows that expected inflation rate is indeed not the opportunity cost variable of money demand function in China, both narrow Monetary Service Index and narrow simple-summed aggregate perform badly, but broad Monetary Service Index outperform its counterpart. During the sample period, the short-run dynamic demand function of broad simple-summed aggregate is indeed unstable, but its counterpart of Monetary Service Index is surprisingly stable. These conclusions imply that broad Monetary Service Index is a good alternative as a monetary policy inter- mediate target.