CAJ | 학술논문

本文首次从宏观经济的角度，结合我国资本市场独特的制度环境，提出若干关于资本结构权衡理论、最优融资顺序理论和市场择机假说的新假设，然后运用面板数据分数响应和分位数回归两种新的非线性计量方法进行实证分析并发现：我国上市公司的资本结构呈显著的反经济周期变化，宏观经济上行时，公司的资产负债率下降，而宏观经济衰退时，公司的资产负债率则上升；信贷违约风险与资本结构呈显著的负相关关系；信贷配额及股市表现与资本结构之间关系不大。本文的实证结果表明：宏观经济状况是影响公司资本结构的重要因素；资本结构选择符合最优融资顺序理论；上市公司没有单一的股权融资偏好或债务融资偏好。
본문수차종굉관경제적각도，결합아국자본시장독특적제도배경，제출약간관우자본결구권형이론、최우융자순서이론화시장택궤가설적신가설，연후운용면판수거분수향응화분위수회귀량충신적비선성계량방법진행실증분석병발현：아국상시공사적자본결구정현저적반경제주기변화，굉관경제상행시，공사적자산부채솔하강，이굉관경제쇠퇴시，공사적자산부채솔칙상승；신대위약풍험여자본결구정현저적부상관관계；신대배액급고시표현여자본결구지간관계불대。본문적실증결과표명：굉관경제상황시영향공사자본결구적중요인소；자본결구선택부합최우융자순서이론；상시공사몰유단일적고권융자편호혹채무융자편호。
This paper uses a novel approach in testing various theories of capital structure, taking into consideration the unique institutional background and corporate governance characteristics inherent in publicly listed firms in China. The paper posits that macroeconomic conditions affect corporate capital structure and derives several testable hypotheses based on the trade-off, pecking order and market timing theories. It then estimates a panel data fractional response model and a panel data quartile regression model. The paper finds that corporate capital structure is counter-cyclical, significantly negatively related to proxies of default risk, but unrelated to credit quota and stock market performance. The empirical results are consistent with the peeking order theory but are against the trade-off theory and market timing hypothesis. The results also suggest that corporate financing choices vary with macroeconomic conditions. During a period of economic boom, firms prefer internal financing over equity and debt. However, during a period of economic downturn, firms generally prefer debt over equity.